A Unite the Left Movement?

A Unite the Left Movement?

Sometime this weekend the federal Liberal executive will get together over Chinese food and hammer out the guidelines for the upcoming leadership contest. Expect next week and the week after to be full of announcements from people you’ve heard of and people you haven’t declaring their candidacy.

One of the early front runners is former Ontario Premier Bob Rae. There appears to be no question that Rae is getting ready to go; he’s even brought on board Jean Chrétien’s former right-hand man, Eddy Goldenberg, to help organize a party machine.

In a speech last week Rae mentioned something about a “unite the left” movement. Of course, few believe that a full merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP would ever take place. Although some, like the Globe’s favourite blogger Jason Cherniak, see the NDP as an unnecessary hurdle that blocks the Liberal party from achieving its full potential, the rest of us appreciate having a third option. It is not a sign of a healthy democracy to have to plug your nose when you vote.

The other thing to consider is that eliminating the NDP wouldn’t necessarily mean smooth sailing for the Liberal Party. Take recent events on the side of the ocean where I’m currently living. After the embarrassing defeat of his own legislation, Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair has come to count on support from the Tory opposition to get bills past, so great is the dissent in the Labour ranks. In fact, I remember during the last election a few Labour backbenchers campaigned on a promise to keep Tony Blair in line. And this is his own party! Is this the kind of Liberal party Dan Cooke wants?

One of the reasons that the NDP would refuse to merge with the Liberals is because few realistic party members believe that the NDP is going to form the government in the next twenty or thirty years, and they are fine with that. Although it does have support across the country, the NDP has been unable to make any breakthroughs in Quebec. Despite a good showing this time around, in which the party increased its seat total significantly, the NDP would be pressed to once again achieve the success it experienced under Ed Broadbent. Finally, so long as the first past the post system remains in tact the NDP is going to continue to fall victim to strategic voting.

This does not mean that NDP doesn’t play an important role in shaping Canadian politics. The fact that Canadians voted Tommy Douglas as the greatest Canadian without him ever having inhabited Sussex Drive goes to show the influence the NDP can have by applying pressure from the outside. Indeed, from time to time the Liberals need to be reminded what it means to be liberal, and so even if the NDP doesn’t always get the credit it deserves, it is often responsible for the Liberal party’s more progressive policies (if you don’t believe me, try to find a quote by Paul Martin or any Liberal for that matter talking about child care before the Liberal minority).

So after taking all of this into consideration, is there really any worth in discussing a ‘unite the left’ movement? To the chagrin of Liberals and NDPers alike, I am going to say, Yes, because the fact of the matter is that it could end up being beneficial to both parties.

As I mentioned, such an agreement would not consist of the NDP folding into the Liberals, or a ‘New Democratic Liberal Party’ merger, or anything of the sort. I am thinking more along the lines of a strategic alliance between the parties for the next election. In this scenario the Liberals could run a candidate in 2/3rds of the nations ridings and the NDP could run candidates in the other third. Although there would no doubt be bickering between the two parties as to who ran where, I am sure that strategists sitting in a smoky room and drinking brandy could figure out who had the best chance of winning in each riding.

For example, Liberals would obviously have a better chance of taking seats in Quebec, so they would probably run in the majority of the seats there. The NDP tends to be stronger in places like Saskatchewan and certain parts of Ontario. I am sure that fighting would break out over B.C., where both parties have faired well, and also Toronto, which has traditionally voted Liberal but has been willing to turn to the NDP as of late.

It would be a mistake to think that adding the Liberals and NDP votes together would guarantee support on the same level the parties enjoyed before the alliance. I imagine that some Liberals would prefer to vote for the Harpies rather than support a united option, and that some traditional NDP supporters would move over to the Green party as a matter of principle. Nevertheless, vote splitting would certainly come an end in many places, and the Conservatives would have a much harder time slipping through either with a minority or a majority.

The Liberal would benefit by silencing the criticisms that they aren’t being “Liberal” enough. They’d also gain a number of highly experienced cabinet material MPs, including Jack Layton, Alexa Mcdonagh, Pat Martin, Bill Blackie, and Yvon Godin, to name a few. No matter how hard they try, Liberals for some reason have been unable to articulate a proper environmental policy. I would bet that Jack Layton, rather than attempting to jockey himself into a position of higher influence, would be much more satisfied taking over the environment ministry and finally putting it in order. Without a doubt the idea probably provokes the NDP leader’s midlife nocturnal emissions.

Not only would the NDP gain through contributing to policy, they’d also probably elect a record number of MPs, thus giving themselves further credentials in the event that the love between the two parties was lost and they found themselves once again on the opposition benches. People would be much more likely to vote for the NDP if they felt that they could hold the balance of power. Furthermore, having a record to run on that extends beyond opposing things would also contribute to future electoral success.

It is hard to say whether or not the two parties could work out such an agreement before the next election. It may be the case that the parities’ constitutions require that they run candidates in all 308 ridings, which would obviously complicate things.

Nevertheless, if anyone can pull this off, it might just be Bob Rae. The fact that he was the former NDP premier of Ontario would go far in making many NDPers believe him genuine and serious about a strong left-of-centre alternative, even if many resent his having abandoned the party.
Jean Chrétien never had to worry about such a union because majorities came easy to him. Paul Martin was too arrogant to even conceive of such an idea, and we see where that attitude has got him now. A new bread of Liberal leaders could change the attitude of the Liberal party towards its NDP cousins. What might determine the question for the two parties is their mutual desire to send Steven Harper into early retirement. At this point in time it is too early to see which Steven Harper becomes Prime Minister, and whether or not the Canadian public will grant him another term or search for an excuse to throw him out.