The Ballad (Battle?) of Bernie and Shawn

The Ballad (Battle?) of Bernie and Shawn

Sometimes I imagine that New Brunswick politics are like a cartoon episode I must have seen a million times before. Imagine Bernard Lord (Bernie, for our purposes) is the premier. When he came to power, people generally liked him because he was seen as a man who kept his promises. He had 20 issues to resolve in 100 days, and he more or less made it. After those 100 days though, things haven’t been going so well for him.

Now, imagine the premier has a bratty little brother named Shawn. At first, Shawn doesn’t figure much into Bernie’s life, but then when Shawn sees how much attention Bernie gets as Premier, Shawn decides to become the leader of his own political party. Bernie initially dismisses Shawn as too much of a lightweight to do well in HIS political arena, but then Shawn surprised everyone by coming closer than anyone expected and almost winning an election against Bernie. Now, when Shawn speaks, people tend to take him serious, and when he does you can almost see Bernie’s face getting redder and steam coming out of his ears. You know on the inside Bernie wants to yell, “HE STILL WETS THE BED FOR CRIPES SAKE! HE CAN’T BE PREMIER!,” yet his pleas continually fall on deaf ears. Unfortunately, we all know how this is going to end. One of these days Bernie is going to be so down and out by Shawn’s ascension that he’s going to have a few drinks, jump in his car, and drive his party straight into an election. We can only hope that someone is around to pick up the pieces.

This, in a nutshell, is New Brunswick politics. During the last election, despite not overwhelming the province with his keen political skills, Shawn Graham managed to start pulling on the right threat of public opinion, and before you knew what happened Bernard Lord’s sweater of a majority was reduced to a skin-tight T-shirt. Lord had obvious reasons to be upset; he clearly had more experience and a more articulate vision for the future, how could voters turn there back on him over such a silly issue as car insurance? Well, it helps to remember that Bernard Lord owed his initial majority to the public’s discontent over the idea of a toll highway, a plan Bernie ending up scrapping in the end at the expense of the New Brunswick taxpayer.

Bernard Lord’s problem, as I see it now, is that he is the one-man show of the Conservative party, and the problem with being a one-man show is that, once people get tired of you, there is no-one who can divert attention and allow you to sit out a few rounds. Lord has few strong people behind him, and if they are in fact there, he’s not trusting enough to give them responsibilities and let them stand in the limelight. The guy who did his dirty work, Elvy Robichaud, has said ‘Enough Already!’ and thrown in he towel. This leaves the premier without, amongst other things, an obvious successor, which he will no doubt need after the 2007 election, unless of course someone gives him 40 acres so he can turn that rig around, as the song says.

Shawn Graham does not have this problem. His is another problem: you’d be hard to find a person in the province who really feels inspired by Shawn Graham’s leadership. In fact, if you look closely you’ll notice that many Liberal MLAs have teeth marks in their hands from all the times they have to bite their fists whenever they catch themselves saying “the next Premier of New Brunswick, Shawn Graham.” In what I think is an intentional move, Shawn Graham delegates a lot and so, rather than seeing his face on the front page every night, New Brunswickers see an assortment of potential leaders, including T.J. Burke, Mike Murphy, and Kelly Lamrock. Once he gets to office, he also has the benefit of having a few experienced cabinet ministers like my MLA Stu Jameson and fellow Saint-Johner Roly McIntyre. It is hard to say whether or not this strategy, which appears to work well on the opposition bench, can be successfully applied to the government’s benches.

Shawn Graham is not without other faults. When he was elected Liberal leader, I was willing to overlook his regular speaking gaffs and screechy voice because I was hopeful that, as a young leader from a new generation, he might be able to fundamentally change the Liberal party. Maybe he’d make the environment an actual priority rather than a necessary speaking point, like the great-great-aunt twice removed Liberals always feel the need to send a Christmas card to every year, but they never get around to actually visiting.

It didn’t take long to feel disappointed. Shawn’s solution to our energy shortage was to build a NEW Nuclear reactor (because the one we have has worked so well, insert sarcasm), and as it happens, he knows a guy who can hook us up, former NB Liberal Leader Ray Frenette, who just happens to be in the business of selling Nuclear reactors! How lucky are we?!? I Spanish I would say, ‘Qué cosa más Liberal!,” which roughly translates as “what an authentically Liberal thing to do!,” only it doesn’t have the same ring in English.

I guess this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, considering Shawn owes his current job to his Liberal connections, and without a Senate to appointment people to, Shawn has to find other creative ways to pay back favours. You see, the reason Shawn is the current Premier in waiting is because his father, a long time Liberal MP, had enough connections to seal up support for his boy when the job became open. Not only that, most Liberals over-estimated Bernard Lord’s strength and figured that they’d let Shawn be the guy to loose the next two elections, and then a real leader would step up when the party was on the verge of power. Bernard Richard, the intern leader, did an excellent job taking Lord to task, and had he stayed on as Liberal leader for the next election, Bernard Lord would have been the first Premier in a long time not to win a second term. Richard new this and so, when he was offered the high-paying job of Ombudsman, he took the chance to put his ‘what ifs’ to rest.

And so this is the situation we in N.B. find ourselves in today. The upcoming election is Bernard Lord’s to loose and Shawn Graham’s to win by default. Whether or not Graham has a successful term or terms as Premier depends solely on how quickly it takes the Conservatives to rebuild themselves and expose Graham’s weakness. When he arrives at the Premier’s chair, he’ll have to be sure to keep one eye constantly looking over his shoulder, as those guys he depends on to help lead the team, well, let’s just say, they’re all licking their slips at the smell of blood, and if the time is right it wont matter to them if it’s Bernie’s blood or Shawn’s.

Hasta Soon everybody,

MCA