The Harper Government - Sink or Swim?

Well, the Harper government, or the Harpies, as I like to call them, have assembled the ship and left headed towards the vast and open sea, and now the question is whether they will sink or swim. It is probably pointless to make predictions at such an early stage, as literally anything could happen. Yet it is fun, so here I’m going to give it a go.

Throughout the campaign, all of the pundits who jumped on the conservative ship (everyone who owns a boat knows it’s a good idea to name your ship after a woman. The conservatives choose to name theirs after their Grandmother, which is why it’s called “The Preston”) talked endlessly about how cautious Steven Harper was. Indeed, the election was his to loose, and so he and his candidates had to take extra care to make sure they didn't say or do anything that would prove true the Liberal's scary add tactics. Nevertheless, on his first day of work Harper took some big calculated risks, and it is still too early to tell if they'll have a lasting impact. The Emerson appointment, along with destroying the man's integrity, definitely shook the conservative base, and from this point forward they'll be weary of anything that makes them look like hypocrites. But, like I said, these things could blow over.

For their part the Liberals are going to be out in the woods for a long time, so it'll probably be to their advantage to allow this minority parliament to run for two or three years. A lot depends on who takes over as leader. If someone from the current caucus takes over, has legs, and can build up some momentum, they may risk voting against the government if they feel they can pull off a minority/majority. However, if the new leader is someone from outside, especially someone without much parliamentary experience, we may see this parliament last longer than any other in our country’s history. The new leader would not only have to introduce him/herself to the public, but also possibly run in a bi-election in order to get into the house. Regardless of either of these two outcomes, the Liberals will more than likely want to have a policy convention and maybe go on one of those makeover shows. Although health care and child care will definitely be their bread and butter issues, they wont want to look like Chrétien/Martin re-runs.

So where does one place his bet? My money is on the idea that once the Conservatives feel they have potential for a majority, they'll pull the plug on themselves. They may even try to take advantage of the Liberal's momentary headless state, or go at them when they have a new and untested leader. I imagine that, rather than attempt this over a contentious issue, it'll probably be a battle over a tax cut, which would make the Conservatives look like a party sympathetic to taxpayers and make the Liberals look like money hungry bloodsuckers eager to setup another registry programme to siphon off billions of dollars (who knows, maybe a blender registry? If a blender fell into the wrong hands, who knows what could happen). The Conservatives may or may not succeed in pulling off a majority. The biggest risk would be that the nameless Liberal leader performs better than expected, a la Carol James in British Columbia, and the Liberals tighten the Conservative's already skin-tight acid washed minority.

Who knows, there is a lot that can happen, and the conservatives have a party full of people just dying to say something stupid. Who will be the first? I hear Vegas has their money on Stockwell Day, who is always a safe bet. At the same time, though, the Conservatives have a lot of cabinet ministers with zero experience in government at the federal level. Any one of them could be a ticking time bomb. Let us not forget the religious conservative backbenchers, closest reformers, and of course, Myron Thompson.

Finally, someone asked me why I refer to Tony Clement as Fishface, and I think that deserves an explanation. Tony Clement raises my blood pressure every time I see him because of something he said the day he announced his intention to run for the leadership of the new conservative party. He said that, as an immigrant himself, he knew the challenges faced by new Canadians. HIS PARENTS CAME FROM ENGLAND! What, did his parents have difficult finding work because of their superior command of the English language? Was his father consistently mistaken for someone's butler? Does his really have the cajones to say on national TV that as the son of English migrants he has experienced the same challenges as an uneducated Sudanese refugee? Give me a break! The only time I've ever shaken my first harder at the T.V. was when Belinda Stronach said, with a straight face, that she faced challenges as a single mother. What challenge does a millionaire single mother face when you have a football team hired to take care of your children? Choosing whether to send them to school in the Hummer or the Corvette is not a REAL challenge!

That’s it for today folks. I shall soon post on the Ballad of Bernie and Shawn, and I’m working on a longer piece about bilingualism in New Brunswick. Hasta Soon everyone.

MCA