The Carp's Blog

A Reflection on Running in Oakland

2010-04-05T05:55:00.000+02:00

Today me and 3,000 of my closest neighbours decided to get out of bed and go for a jog. We were all running in Oakland's first ever half-marathon (the full marathon was taking place simultaneously). We see each other all the time on the streets of Oakland and Berkeley; we run in opposite directions and awkwardly nod. Sometimes we pass each other only to meet up again at the next light. We know that there are many of us out there, but for some reason it still comes as a surprise to see 3,000 people congregate for reasons that have nothing to do with observing a sporting event, a music concert, or opposing health care. Instead, like a group of masochists not ashamed to openly flaunt our passion for pain, we met at the corners of 11th and Broadway to run a 21k loop through the streets of Oakland.

Oakland is a city for which I've long felt a strong kinship. When I was a kid I tried to differ from my Toronto Blue-Jay supporting friends by rooting for the Oakland A's and their young skinny slugger, Mark Mcgwire. Only when the Blue Jays started putting together World Series teams did I finally submit and give my allegiance to one of our two national teams. Second, to anyone who knows my hometown of Saint John, New Brunswick, you'll see the immediate parallels. Like Saint John, Oakland is a port city steeped in British Neoclassical architecture. Unlike its ostentatious neighbour San Francisco across the bay, Oakland's horizon is not peppered with skyscrapers, which gives the city a more modest and humble feel. Some parts of Oakland are covered in brick, whereas many residential areas have a distinct 1970s feel, as if the crack boom of the 70s and 80s also brought with it a moratorium on construction. This is also where Saint John and Oakland differ: while Saint John's South and North ends have their share of notorious streets, nothing in the Maritimes compares to crime ridden East Oakland, birthplace of the Hells Angels and home to one of the highest murder rates in the United States. Whereas Saint John's urban poverty is not magnified by the wealth of the highest earners, Oakland's is. From just about anywhere in the city you can look East and see the coveted Oakland Hills where a half-million dollars is likely to only get you a one bedroom condo. For us Canadians this contrast is uniquely American (unless your familiar with Vancouver's lower East Side), and for the well traveled Oakland's disparity reminds one of any major city anywhere in the so-called developing world.

You need not go far to see both sides of Oakland's success and demise: on most weekends I start my run in Berkeley and head down College avenue before connecting with Broadway, which takes you straight down Oakland's gentrified city center. When I'm feeling strong I'll run all the way to 7th street, the city's port, and then turn around and head back to Berkeley on San Pablo. On Boardway you find high-end car dealerships. On San Pablo you see windows boarded up, garbage scattered, and surprisingly at 8am on a Saturday, a lone crack dealer covering what must be for a him a graveyard shift. Young latinos wait anxiously on street corners hoping that a contractor will need paperless hands for a job. Sometimes when I run in the afternoon I find they've been waiting all day. After about 5k (3 miles) I'm back in Berkeley and San Pablo takes on a more bohemian feel with its endless coffee shops, gourmet breakfast restaurants, and antique dealers. I keep going another 8k (5 miles) until I reach El Cerrito, where San Pablo becomes sketchy again. At this point I start heading East on my final lap before reaching home.

Although I was aware Oakland was planning on hosting a marathon, I completely forgot until the week before the race when I saw it featured on the cover of a community magazine. I ran (fittingly) home and registered online, thinking that this race, with one week to prepare, was the perfect catalyst to get me back on track. You see, back in October I ran my first full marathon in my home town of Saint John, New Brunswick. While being cheered on by my parents, wife, and Aunt Susan, I ran alongside familiar faces through streets I had once known well but whose names have started to slip from my memory as I come closer to my tenth anniversary away from the city of my birth. Growing up in a small town means that, once you get your license at sixteen, the most common form of amusement is driving the city and its outskirts, moving from fast food place to coffee shops to empty parking lots and occasionally slipping into house parties or bonfires along the way. Having never run 42k before, I wasn't really sure what to expect from either my mind or my body, which more often than not tend to disagree and not speak to each other when forced to work together to achieve something out of the ordinary. I set the external goal of completing the race in less than four hours and the internal goal of finishing in less than 3:30 minutes. If Google has taught me anything, it is that you should always aim low and shoot high for external-facing goals, and aim high and do your best for personal goals. About halfway through the race I found two kind individuals who kept a decent pace and I ran with them for the majority of the track. Two of the three of us started to pull away during the last 10k when a combination of an uphill climb, gusting winds and ever tiring bodies forced our conversation further and further to the backs of our minds. Somewhere around the Saint John Regional Hospital someone shouted, "you're in the top 10 ten!" which took me completely by surprise and breathed new life into my legs. I picked up my pace and headed for the finish line, coming in at 3:26. Although I didn't immediately see my family Michelle appeared from nowhere followed by my parents and my Aunt Susan. We'd been laughing and joking throughout the race when they'd meet me every 10k or so to cheer me on and I'd try to repay them with a handstand or by running off the course to sneak a kiss from Michelle before carrying on. When we met at the finish line, however, we all burst into tears: the day started normally enough, but the accomplishment became something more serious when it was over.

Finishing a marathon is never as commendable an accomplishment as the training that makes it possible. I started running regularly at Oxford with my good friend and uber-athlete Carlos Dominguez, a published fiction author, a PhD in Development Studies, and an ambitious cyclist who is never more at peace with himself than when he's in some backwater territory forcing his bike up an incline he would otherwise have no business ever coming across. Then, when Michelle and I moved to Ecuador, I would regularly run around the Parque Carolina in Quito until I finally decided to participate in a half marathon from the city's bullfighting plaza to the official marker of the middle of the earth. I was inspired by Libo, a 50 something guard at the private school where I taught who began running in his mid forties and never looked back. Despite his humble means Libo had inspired the school and enough former students to find the support to be able to run marathons in Argentina and the United States. He encouraged me to try the 'middle of the earth half marathon,' which I did and I finished in about two hours and twenty minutes, compared to his less than 90 minute finish. When Michelle and I again moved, this time to to the United States, I set the goal for running a complete marathon, and I could think of no better place to do so than my home town. Now getting back to my original point: preparing for a marathon requires months and months of running 5-6 days a week without exception. I think one of the reasons running attracted me so much was because it forced me to be disciplined. The greatest critique I have of myself is the gap I sometimes have between my ambitions and my willingness to fulfill those ambitions. I have a lot of things I do 'well enough' only because I had the will to learn but never the will to follow through and master them. Running, however, allowed me to push myself to the limits of my own discipline.

Discipline allowed me to finish the marathon in Saint John, but it completely deserted me after that and only recently started poking its head around my place in the past two months. After Saint John I experienced something I later learned to be Runner's lethargy. I told myself I'd take a week off to recover, and then that week became a month, then two months, then I'd think about starting again after our Christmas vacation, and then... Throughout the past four months I'd occasionally go out for a run around the neighbourhood on a Saturday but I'd always end up feeling a strain due to my pride taking precedence over my pain, which in turn caused me to over-exert myself. Then in February I went to see my Doctor after a routine checkup and he had some bad news: my bad cholesterol was abnormally high for someone my age, and my heartbeat was much faster than it should be. 'You've got a genetic pre-disposition towards an unhealthy heart,' he told me. 'If you do anything, keep running, as it's the only thing keeping your heart from beating dangerously fast.'

There is nothing like a scare from your doctor to knock the lazy out of you, and that's exactly what his message did. I started running two nights a week when Michelle would have class, and then again at least once on the weekend. Recently a friend and I started driving to work at 6am which allowed me to run every morning before my workday started. Slowly I became myself again: I felt strong throughout the entire day, I didn't feel sleepy until after 10pm at night, I had more patience, my moods were regulated, and I began paying attention to the food I ate. I was up to running 15k on my long runs, which was still a far cry from the 32k I was reaching in training for my marathon, but I knew I was on the way. When I saw the Oakland marathon on that community paper, I figured this would be an excellent occasion to push myself to the next level. Marathons have a tendency to bring the best out in runners: the competition, the supporters, the entire city coming to a stop so that you can own the streets, all of these things are enough to push someone beyond what they're usually comfortable with.

The day before race day I spent much of my time hiding from the sun, attempting to conserve energy, carb-loading and hydrating. When I woke up on race day I took Fiona for a quick walk and then jumped in my car to catch the rapid-transit train to Oakland for the race. As soon as I got there my internal goal of just completing the half marathon found its own competition from another goal I'd set for myself. After completing the full marathon in less than 3:30, I told myself that someday I'd beat three hours. While standing at the starting line I began to calculate what speed I'd need to maintain to complete a full marathon in three hours and I realized that I'd have to keep a 7 minute mile, which is a about an extra minute more than what I am used to. I found a group of people standing around a sign that said 'seven minute mile,' and before I could contemplate whether or not this was a good idea the race began and we were on our way.

The secret to completing any race is listening to your body and knowing how hard you can push yourself. I once learned the hard way that not listening to your body can have consequences: one afternoon it was about 90 degrees outside and I was desperate to get my miles in for the day. I headed outside determined to man-out the heat, and when I reached the Oakland Children's Hospital I began to feel as if darkness was slowly overtaking my vision and the outer world looked more and more like a keyhole I was struggling to look through. I immediately stopped, remarked to myself on the good fortune of passing out in front of a hospital, and took a few minutes to breathe. I walked the next half mile to the nearest gas station, guzzled down a Gatorade, and continued on my way. Brushing aside these memories I decided to keep pace with the people I'd seen standing near me, even though I'd lost most of them during the race's initial shuffle.

After two miles I settled into a steady stride close to individuals who appeared to be keeping a pretty good pace. A gentleman with the body of an avatar was in front of me, which I felt appropriate, and behind me were two fifty something women with a combined total body-fat of about less than one one-hundredth of a percent. The two women were chatting to each other as if they just happened to be out for a walk, decided to keep pace with those around them, and had yet to come to the realization that they were running a half marathon (one of the rules of long distance running is that a comfortable pace is one you should be able to chat at. I knew that but I'd never tried it before, and was surprised to see these woman handle the seven minute mile with such ease).

In most races there are two types of people: those who are out to prove something, and those who will be happy just to finish. When you run with the later they're generally happy to have company to keep pace. When you run with the former they tend to be suspicious of anyone running at the same speed. For some the raw nature of the competition means that they're only comfortable when no-one is close to them. Others fear that if they find a comfortable pace running with someone that they may unwittingly slow themselves down and thus threaten their desired goal. Although for a few miles I was able to keep between the Avatar and the extreme sports version of The View, disaster quickly struck: the avatar stopped running and began to favour his right leg. He pulled off to stretch and I never saw him again. At the same time I could no longer hear the chatter of the ladies from The View over my music, which meant I was once again on my own.

No matter: I'd made myself a playlist of songs that would keep me energized throughout the race. I had to stop myself from singing and wasting air from time to time. Normally when I run I listen to audiobooks or podcasts, but today I figured I'd need the extra boost. The only time this strategy posed a problem was when I was running alongside a group of animated Greco-roman sculptures and Cake's "Shut the F%#k up!" shuffled its way onto my playlist. If you know the song, you know exactly way I'd want to hear it when pushing myself to run long distance (incidentally, "the distance," is another Cake song on my playlist). Lost in the moment, I started singing outloud, "Shut the F%#k up, heyyyyyyyy hooooooo, learn to buck up!" For those running along side me they wouldn't likely have been surprised to find crazy people swearing at no-one on the streets of Oakland. What may have surprised them was the fact that a crazy person singing and swearing at no-one was running along side them, intent on keeping pace. Ohh well: I guess that's what happens when you hold a marathon in Oakland.

The slightly confused shirtless runners moved ahead and I decided to slip into pilot mode: runners, like pilots, have to constantly check their instruments to make sure everything is keeping steady. I have a checklist that runs from my feet to my head: first, am I jumping or am I pushing? Running, as someone once pointed out to me, isn't about pushing with your legs, it's about springing from stride to stride. As such, I try to ensure that I'm picking my feet up behind me to propel myself forward. I push from my hips and lean into the ground so as to let gravity pull me forward rather than require me to push my weight through space. Next, are my calves tight? They shouldn't be. Can I hoist a grape between my but cheeks? No? good. You need to make sure you but isn't wasting energy by tightening up as if you were streaking through a maximum security prison. Next, am I leaning forward? Are my arms moving? Is my next straight? Is my head up? When I run I go through this check every mile or so. Forcing my legs to kick back rather than push forward is probably the toughest, as it requires a lot of concentration and regulation. I hope to someday get to a point where I just do this naturally and I don't have to think about it.

By mile 4 (marathons, for my Canadian friends, are 26.2 miles (meaning half marathons are 13.1 miles) I started to feel the effects of the sun bearing down on me. The marathon started at 7 but the half-marathon only started at nine, which meant that we would probably get exposed to early morning sun beams I'd rather avoid. I can take the rain, and the fog, and the cold, but I absolutely hate the sun when I am running. I look to my right and realize that there is an escape: there is shade on the side of the road, but the side of the road is slightly slanted downwards for drainage. If I run there too long I could risk hurting my knee (people think it's romantic to run on a beech barefoot, but if there is one sure-fire way to pick up a running injury it's by running on un-even surfaces). I decide to hold out against the sun and motor on. I'd also make sure to hydrate whenever possible: unlike races past where I've sometimes ran by re-fueling stations for fear of slowing down, I promised myself this time that I would accept anything and everything that was offered to me (in non-pipe form, of course), in order to ensure maximum hydration and conserve my energy for the finish line.

By mile 6 my body and mind began to enter into conflict: my mind was telling me to keep moving forward, whereas my body was saying "hold on a minute, you're not used to this pace. You risk not finishing if you don't listen to me. Look, you're mind doesn't know what the F#&K it's talking about. You really need to listen to me and settle into a more natural pace." As often happens in these situations, my mind, fueled by my pride, won the argument, and a few miles later my body seemed to pick up some extra steam and pushed me forward before another problem set in: I had to pee. This happens to me every time I run a race, although never when I train for a race. Although I used a porta-potty just before the race began I now had another instrument to check. I might find a bathroom along the way, but that might also put my goal into jeopardy.

In my experiences all races are relative: the last mile of a race, be it a 15k, half-marathon, or full marathon, is the worst mile of your life. So to is crossing the half-way point at which time you tell yourself, "you only need to do exactly what you've done so far and you should be fine." I checked my watch and saw that I was on the 45 minute mark exactly, which meant that I had to hold this pace and not let off if I wanted to achieve my goal. Again my body was suggesting that this wasn't possible, so I decided to use a trick I call the Happy Phil, named after it's founder, my good friend Phil Ouellette. Phil, if you ever met him, has an incredible ability to charm anyone. He somehow makes any and everybody feel immediately at ease. As a director in the New Brunswick Provincial government, he's told me stories of giving high fives to deputy ministers in meetings. If I tried to give a high five to anyone in a formal setting only awkwardness would follow. But when Phil does it, for some reason, even the most stone-faced individuals can't help but come out of their shells and chuckle at the novelty of it all. As such, the way I would give myself the psychological and physical boost I would need would be to give high fives to strangers standing along the route and cheering us on. My first victim was an Oakland police officer who was simultaneously directing traffic and cheering the racers on, thus sending mixed signals to both which, as far as I know, did not result in tragedy. As I approached him we made eye contact and my left hand immediately went in the air. "High Five!" I shouted with my best Kazak accent. "Woo Yeah!" he shouted back as the spectators giggled.

The Happy Phil worked: as soon as our high five was complete I had an immediate boost of energy and my pace picked up substantially. My next target was an elderly Chinese lady who was clapping to a beat no-one but she could hear. She gave me a slow, deliberate high five as if she had to consider the mechanics of moving her arm in such a motion before again standing to cheer me on even more. I gave two more high fives in a row before I realized that I was giving myself too much energy and needed to slow down and breathe. I came around a corner and saw a group of Oakland Raiders fans in full get-up and face paint yelling slogans to the runners as if we were 4 and 1 on the goal line. I got a fist bump from one and a 'yeah baby!' from another, before a group of non-costumed fans standing farther down the road all stuck out their hands wanting a piece of the happy Phil. I continued this way until the final three miles: every time I felt myself slowing down I would lock eyes with an unsuspecting spectator (can you be both?), go high and then re-fuel. Although I didn't see any other runners follow suit, many did find the strength to let out a "Woo!" and a "let's go!". At some point it occurred to me, if rock stars use the energy of the crowd to heighten their performance, why shouldn't runners?

At mile ten my pilot's warnings told me that systems were starting to malfunction. I felt like a Cessna enthusiast behind the controls of a Boeing 747 and I needed to land the plane to save everyone's life: this shouldn't be an issue, a few months ago I ran at least a half-marathon EVERY WEEKEND in preparation for Marathon by the Sea in Saint John. Aside from the need to pee, the larger problem here was our old enemy doubt: if the devil makes people do things, doubt makes people not do things, and it does so by whispering sour nothings into our ears that remind us of all the reasons why we should just give up and call it a a day. "Matthew, for the love of Monkey, this is nothing! This is a half-marathon! What the hell are you whining about? Get on with it!". That's what I tried to tell myself, but my body wouldn't listen. I then caught sight of the greco-roman sculptures who are easily offended by cussing: they'd slowed down, and now was my time to pick it up. I may have the beginnings of a pot belly, and my nipples may point more outward than inward when I take off my shirt (too much description?) but I am sure as hell fast enough to run three miles (5k) at a decent pace. I ran past a bathroom and decided that if any of my systems have to fail I can afford to pee myself without it causing long term damage to my body (although the emotional scar would take a long time in healing).

I picked it up a notch for mile eleven and twelve and then planned my sprint through mile thirteen. I could visualize it: I would get to mile thirteen, see the finish line, and then start pumping like an Alaskan farmboy caught in the shed with one of Sarah Palin's daughters. I got close to mile thirteen, shouted some words of encouragement to the other runners (some of whom were completing the full marathon, as the two races combined for the last few miles), and skipped third and went right into fifth. I kept that pace for about a minute or so, and then I slid back to forth, and then into fifth, and then struggled to keep it above sentence. The guys who I had been encouraging on were now passing me with ease. I allowed myself to put my head down as they trotted by.

Finally, with about half a mile to go, the finish line finally came into sight and I began to sprint. Both sides of the finish line were crowded with people: If I stopped to give high fives I'd probably lose 15 minutes and never meet my mark. I pushed harder and harder, much to the joy of the onlookers and the chagrin of other runners who probably felt like I was just being a jackass for the sake of it. I was sprinting though because I became aware of another reality: when the clock came into view it said 1:29, and I had to put everything into it if I was going to meet my goal. When I finally crossed the finish line the clock stood at 1:31, one measly minute off of my goal.

Before I'd come to a complete stop someone handed me a medal, someone else took a picture, and someone else handed me what appeared to be a large sheet of tin wrap. I asked what it was for and the kid looked at me as if to say, "you really don't know?". "It's to keep you warm" he said, before turning his attention to the smarter runners who were apparently right behind me. I immediately found a bathroom and then got in the line for a massage. An ironically named woman called "Stormy" was assigned the task of bringing tranquility to my over-exerted legs. When we were finished I felt slightly worse than when we started, although my comfort throughout the rest of the day was a testament to Stromy's skilled hands.

Because Michelle was in El Salvador I was resigned to celebrating my victory alone, but to a certain extent that's the way it should be: 59 people crossed the finish line before me, and the winner beat me by twenty minutes. At the same time others were completing the full marathon, and somewhere out there people are training for 50 mile and 100 mile ultra marathons through crazy terrains and unforgiving topography. I held a pace for 90 minutes that others can hold for 12 hours. Many of the people who finished before me were older, some even twice my age. Whenever you participate in a sport as vast and widely practiced as running your accomplishments are only significant when you look at them subjectively.If a statistician were to look at running accomplishments she'd see something far removed from a normal distribution: on the one hand you have the vast majority of people who prefer to avoid running farther than the living room the bathroom. On the other side of the spectrum you have individuals who have pushed the human body to its limits, surprising themselves and the scientists/doctors who make understanding the human body their primary focus. For those of us in the middle we take pride in doing something we've never done before, and that's exactly why I do it. In the lead up to the Marathon by the Sea I would run a distance longer than anything I had ever run before in my life, and usually I managed to do so before 9am. Humans love to surprise and be surprised by going beyond normal expectations. Many look to travel or extreme sports to get that sensation, yet others work towards it day in and day out on the sometimes decrepit, sometimes affluent streets of Oakland, the rose Gardens of Oxford, at 10,000 feet in the middle of the earth, and on the foggy streets of Saint John, New Brunswick. Of course the physical and mental health benefits are obvious, but for me what is less obvious is that running allows me to close the gap between being a person of words and being a person of action; in other words, I blur the distinction between the person I want to be and the person I am. When we live in a capitalist society where our value is measured by how much money we can make for other people, I think it's important that we find ways to challenge ourselves to go beyond our comfort zones.

To conclude, the Olympian Runner PattiSue Plumer said it best when she said,
"Racing [running] teaches us to challenge ourselves. It teaches us to push beyond where we thought we could go. It helps us to find out what we are made of. This is what we do. This is what it's all about."

You can find my results here:
http://results.active.com/pages/searchform.jsp?posted_p=t&sort=p_place_division&rsID=90450&firstName=Matthew&lastName=Carpenter-Arevalo&queryType=arbitrary&page=1&numPerPage=25#hot_links

You can find pictures from the race here:
http://www.marathonfoto.com/index.cfm?RaceOID=23942010W1&LastName=CARPENTER-AREVALO&BibNumber=4403&Mailing=24162
For a really good book on running, try reading: Born to Run: by Christopher McDougall.

Updates!

2006-05-22T21:46:00.000+02:00

Dear All, sorry about the lack of updates. I was spending a lot of time in Switzerland and then had to rush to finish my thesis. I promise a fresh update tomorrow. In the meantime, please keep your thoughts and prayers with the Wilband family.

Take care,

MCa

Oh Gordon, please don't.

2006-04-11T12:41:00.000+02:00

Summary: Asking tough questions about Afghanistan does not mean being “against the troops.”

Let me qualify this post by first of all stating that I don’t go out of my way to make comparisons between the Harper administration and the Bush administration. Harper is much smarter than Bush, a lot less sinister, and would never receive a mandate from the electorate to remake Canada in America’s image.

Nevertheless, the current Defence Minister and former lobbyist for the whose-who of the military contractors, Gordon O’Conner, called the NDP “anti-military” when Jack Layton asked a fair enough question, “What are the goals and objectives of the mission and how do they meet our foreign-policy objectives? What is the mandate, what is the defined concept of operations, what is the effective command and control structure, what are the rules of engagement?”

How the hell does the Defence Minister qualify that question as being anti-military? Has the minister of defence been taking cues from White House briefings? I can think of nothing that sounds more Bushesque, and if the Conservatives want to avoid the Bush comparison, they’ll hold back on the ‘you’re with us or against us’ attitude. With comments like this, there is no wonder that Harper doesn't want his ministers to speak without checking with him first.

First of all, let’s be honest for a minute about why we are in Afghanistan in the first place: Canada didn’t want to appear ‘soft’ on the ‘war on terror,’ and so we volunteered to place our soldiers in harms way in order to allow America to free up some soldiers to continue on with its voyages in Iraq. (on a side note, I am hoping that I’ll be deployed to some place warm in the Caribbean as part of Canada’s contribution to the ‘war on drugs’, where I can patrol the beaches and inspect the piña colada vendors.)

Second, if we are going to stay in Afghanistan, we have to know what we are there to do and if we have the resources to do it. The said objective is nation-building, which became a goal after the United States invaded Afghanistan and setup a ‘democratic’ government that is trying to find its legs. In order for the Karzai government to gain legitimacy, it must establish “a monopoly on the use of force,” and so Canada is providing security and attempting to weed out the remainder of the Taliban.

The goal is noble in itself, but if we are going to place our soldiers in harms way we have to know whether or not those ordering the mission are actually dedicated to seeing it through. Has America forgot about Afghanistan after becoming distracted by Iraq? Does the coalition of nations fighting in Afghanistan have the time and money to actually turn that country into a prosperous democracy?

If America and its allies, including Canada, are not committed to seeing the mission through than there is no purpose in Canada putting soldiers in harms way, as we are simply wasting time and lives before Afghanistan is allowed to return to a narco-state and terrorist hideout. Making such a statement does not qualify as being anti-military; instead, caring for the well-being of soldiers should be our top priority, and sometimes this requires asking questions concerning the mandate the government has established for the mission. If all the parties in parliament agree with and are dedicated to the mission and the mandate, there will be no need for future debate in parliament. Until the government explains its position and brings about consensus, it should expect to have to answer to both the opposition, the media, and the Canadian people.

Asking questions of the government is not anti-military; however, refusing to answer them is anti-democratic.

What a Liberal Wants

2006-04-10T14:39:00.000+02:00

Liberals have to ask themselves what they want before deciding on any candidate.

The race to lead the Liberal Party is starting to heat up, and as the Globe and Mail reported this mourning, a number of tiers are starting to take form. That is not to say the race is a foregone conclusion: there is still time for someone to come out of the woodwork, or for an also-ran to impress the Liberal masses and make him/herself a serious contender.

Before people start lining up behind candidates, it is probably time for the Liberal party members to ask themselves an important question: what kind of mandate does the next leader of the Liberal party have? Are the Liberals planning on unseating the Tories in the next election, or are they looking torwards building for the future? Once that question is decided it will become a lot easier to qualify what qualities the Liberals need in a future leader.

In an ideal world, the Liberals would fine an experienced, bilingual, female, Albertan to lead them into an election. Many liberals realize that in order to stay on top they have to make their party appear less Toronto-centric, or at least Central-Canada centric. Since said candidate doesn’t appear to be on the horizon, who is the next best thing?

The problem with the two obvious front-runners, Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, is that no Air Canada jetliner exists with a cargo-hold big enough to carry all of their baggage. Rae will not be able to escape the fact that he was the worst premier of Ontario in recent memory. Granted, not all of that was his fault, but it’s a quick and easy thing to say, stick on a bumper sticker, or throw into a commercial.

Ignatieff suffers from being unknown outside of universities and not very well liked withn them. Ignatieff by all means should be the candidate of young liberals, as young people will naturally gravitate towards people who they are familiar with their environment. The problem is that few trust him because of his support for the Iraq war and dodgy comments on the use of torture. Ignatieff may try to state that he bore less responsibility than a head of state in backing the Bush administration, but as a public intellectual he has to be held accountable for creating an ideological launching pad for a reckless administration. Ignatieff could have easily said, “I would support a removal of Saddam Hussein, but not one that is illegal.” The problem is though, he didn’t. He lined up behind the Bush administration, and few are going to easily forget or forgive. Furthermore, let’s not forget that the man spent the past 30 years living abroad, only to come home to run for office. As Jeffery Simpson pointed out on Saturday, would any other country permit a man to pull off such an act? Could you envision an American living in the U.K. for 30 years, only to return for the democratic primaries? I doubt it!

The one candidate who I am starting to like more and more is former Ontario Education minister Gerard Kennedy. At first I thought it was rather presumptuous for a minister in a provincial government to think he could run and win the Federal Liberal Leadership, but the more I read about him the more I think he could in fact be the man for the job.

There are many reasons why I think he could be the candidate to watch. First of all, although he’s currently a resident of Ontario, his roots are in the west. Second, his background includes a lot of social work, which is always a plus for politicians who want to portray themselves as connected to the average Canadian. Thirdly, he’s bilingual. Finally, if he as popular in Ontario as everyone says he is, he could very well reverse the trend in that province towards Stephen Harper. By keeping Ontario from turning Tory blue, the Liberals could at least manage to hold the Conservatives to a minority government for quite some time. Finally, he is young enough that even if the Liberals loose the next election, come the next one he still wont be receiving CPP. The more time Canadians have to get to know him the better.

Lastly, I want to say that I think Belinda Stronach made the right decision in staying out of the race. Unlike others who will run just so that the rest of us don’t forget who they are, Belinda does not have that need. She can take the next 8-10 years to develop into a solid, bilingual candidate with extensive parliamentary experience. In the meantime, I applaud her efforts to change the way Liberals elect their leaders. I wish her the best of luck.

The Belinda Factor

2006-04-02T18:41:00.000+02:00

The Belinda Factor:

Summary: Does Belinda really have what it takes to be the leader of the Liberal party?

Belinda Stronach, to no-one’s surprise, is thinking about making a run for the Liberal leadership. Unless Michael Ignatieff is struck with a horrifying bout of diphtheria, Bob Rae vanishes in a mysterious skydiving accident, and Scott Brison is consumed by a pack of fierce wolves, she most certainly will not win. In my mind, the Liberal party would have to get pretty desperate for a leader, or very pessimistic about its future chances, to choose Belinda to lead it into the next election.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe it is high time Canada proved itself a civilized, progressive nation by ELECTING a woman as Prime Minister (Kim Campbell’s summer job as PM hardly counts). But is Belinda really the best we can do?

First of all, Belinda speaks French like an 8th grade late immersion student (late immersion often begins at grade 6 or 7), and I think we all agree that, this day in age, bilingualism is a necessary part of the job description. Recently a reporter asked her in French if she was going to run for the leadership. Belinda asked for the question to be repeated. Do you get my drift?

Secondly, Belinda has hardly proven herself in political life. In fact, she’s brought nothing but bad luck for the Liberal party. Her first act was to bring about the gay marriage between the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives. The child of that gay marriage was a united opposition determined to end Liberal hegemony. Belinda then switched to the Liberal Party, became a cabinet minister, and the party lost for the first time in 13 years.

Even as a parliamentarian and a cabinet minister, Belinda has impressed few. She’s spent less time speaking in the house of commons than most back benchers, and she’s yet to convince anyone that she has a firm grasp of the many different issues facing the future of our country. During her failed attempt to lead the united Conservatives, Belinda spoke often about “new ideas” and “fresh leadership,” but she never really got around to discussing what either of those would entail.

Finally, the other reason why I feel she needs to prove herself as a parliamentarian has to do with the fact that many doubt her career in the private sector has come about due to her natural talent. Sure, Magda Autoparts is very successful, but so long as people remember it was her father’s company to begin with, few are willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. Therefore, if Belinda wants to be taken seriously she’ll have to prove that she is good at SOMETHING that the rest of us can observe and say, “you know, she’s right, she is good at that!” Maybe she’s a good Soccer player; maybe she’s a world renowned Urdu poet; or maybe she makes a mean lasagna, for the love of all that is true and sacred tell me you’re accomplished at SOMETHING and make me believe it!

Maybe I’m cynical, but I can’t help but think that Belinda’s failure to buy success in Canadian politics proves that in our democracy substance still prevails over style. With her millions of dollars and important connections, Belinda has been able to hire well informed advisors and coaches, all with the goal of turning her into a sincere and plausible leader. So far their efforts have yet to produce results, and unless Belinda manages to turn things around quickly, I hardly think she’ll succeed as the leader of any party.

The Liberals are in Trouble.

2006-03-29T11:43:00.000+02:00

The Liberals are in Trouble.

Summary: In minority governments, campaigns for the next election begins the day after the original election is finished. The Liberals need to rebuild their party but they seem incapable of thinking outside the Toronto Box. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are doing their best to make headway with voters in the rest of the country.

The Liberals are in trouble, but none of them seems to notice. This is because after the most recent election the Liberals retreated to the trenches of Toronto and dug in. Unfortunately they’ve dug in so far they can’t see over the top, let alone set out charging. Not only that, from the looks of things, once they realized they’d be there for a while, one person did a Tims run while someone else brought over a DVD player. From the looks of things, they’re starting to get a bit too comfortable.

Ahh Toronto! Where the sun always shines and things couldn’t look better. That is, of course, if you’re a Liberal. Even though the NDP may have taken two seats, most Liberals see Jack and Olivia’s victories as isolated incidents rather than a serious threat to their hegemonic dominance of the T-Dot. Toronto remains a safe place where Liberals can walk around with their heads held high, confident that the current Conservative victory is a minor setback.

This weekend Liberals got together in Toronto to celebrate Sheila Copps. The event was marked as a moment of reconciliation meant to bring together the former feuding factions of Chretienites and the Martonians. Former MP Dennis Mills and my MP, Paul Zed, came up with the brilliant idea of commemorating one of the most polarizing figures in Grit history, Sheila Copps, a former Chrétien foot-soldier and a woman hated by the supporters of Martin. The same people who stood by silently as Sheila fell victim to Paul Martin’s political genocide of Chrétien supporters now, two years after her embarrassing defeat, decided it was time to place her on a pedestal. Aline Chrétien was there, and so was John Turner, but noticeably absent was Paul Martin and everyone from his inner circle. This event may have worked to heal the rifts between the Chrétienites and the Turnerites, but I hardly think anyone really believes the big red tent is all of a sudden a comfortable place for all Liberal members.

And so while the grits sipped champagne and gossiped over who would lead them into the next election, Stephen Harper was in my part of the country throwing small money around and putting to rest some significant local issues. For starters, Harper offered to pay 1/3rd of the cost of Saint John’s harbour cleanup. For years we Saint Johners have been embarrassed by the sight and smell of raw sewage being dumped into our harbour. The Federal Government seems to have kick started the cleanup and voters in my area are unlikely to forget that come the next election. Harper was then off to Moncton to offer 6 million for a new stadium. He also announced 400 million to help improve New Brunswick highways(spending which was incidentally approved but not announced by the previous Liberal government. Smooth move). All of this comes as good news to New Brunswick, which the conservatives rightly see as fertile ground.

In Saint John, you have to remember, we were one of only two ridings to elect a Conservative during Chrétien’s massive victory over Kim Campbell’s Tories. We stuck with Elsie Wayne throughout the Chrétien years, and only when she retired did we elect a Liberal, former MP Paul Zed. People initially voted for Zed because there was a general feeling that we were isolating ourselves in Saint John by being consistently on the wrong side of the governing benches. Zed won again in the most recent election because people believed him to be a capable MP who was effective at bringing in money for local projects. It also helps to remember that many in Atlantic Canada continue to be suspicious of Harper and resent comments he has made about the region in the past.

By making these small announcements here and there, Harper is hoping to put to rest concerns that he is a bogeyman determined to sever Atlantic Canada from the rest of the country. In a place where people tend to vote more on local issues than national ones, he just might be successful. If we have another close election, minor gains in Atlantic Canada may be what push the Conservatives into majority territory.

You don’t have to go to Toronto to understand the extent to which the fog rolling in off of Lake Ontario blinds Liberals to the state of their party in the rest of the country. The fact is that almost everyone considered a contender for the Liberal leadership comes from there, with the exception of the also-rans Scott Brison, Dennis Coderre, and Stephane Dion. As for the rest of the slate of candidates, most wouldn’t appear to know the difference between Cape Breton from Great Britain. If things continue like this, the Liberals will have no reason to campaign outside of the 416.

We in the rest of Canada are very suspicious of the “Toronto knows what’s best” attitude, and we wont be willing to hand the keys over to a Liberal just because he or she isn’t Stephen Harper. Whoever becomes the next leader will have to out bid the Prime Minister in the Saint Johns and Darmouths of the country.

Right now the Liberals are loosing that race, not only because they’re not in power, but also because they’re so bunkered down in Toronto. After their surprising success in Quebec Conservatives will be looking to make even larger gains there. If Bloc support holds firm, Liberals could be relegated to the third party in Quebec. I suspect now that the Conservatives have held power, more credible candidates will step out of the woods in places like Ontario and British Colombia, and this can only help the Conservative cause.

The simply reality of the situation is this: unless the Conservatives manage to mess up royally, any election held in the next two years will probably produce another Conservative government. All of the Liberal front-runners right now are either unknown in most of the country or have heavy baggage they’ll have to offload (ie. Haven’t lived in the country for 30 years, bad record as Premier, etc). The sooner Liberals realize this the better for them, as they’ll have to once again venture outside of Toronto’s Green belt and build a real alternative the Conservatives. Stephen Harper is already out there, and if they want to avoid making the same mistake twice, they’d do well not to under-estimate him again.

A Defence of the Seal Hunt

2006-03-25T13:19:00.000+01:00

Life in Geneva as a stay-at-home husband is hard. I wake up late. I read books I’ve always wanted to read. I enter essay writing contests and write long emails about the seal hunt. I iron clothes I ironed the day before, and I discuss with my hostess, Madame Bloch, the merits of the British Monarchy. Sometimes I stroll the streets and strike up long conversations with the American Mormons It has now gotten to the point that, when they see me coming, they start to run the other way.

Part of my daily routine involves watching the news from Canada via the internet. So you can imagine my surprise when one day I see one of my musical heroes, Paul McCartney, visiting my neck of the woods! Once I found out why he was there though, I couldn’t help but mutter to myself and shake my fist at the screen. No, Paul wasn’t there to promote his music. Nor was he visiting an Indian healer looking for inspiration for his new album. Instead, he was spooning a baby seal for a photo-op and calling on the Canadian government to halt the seal hunt.

At first I couldn’t decide whether or not the ex-Beatle was being intentionally disingenuous or simply ignorant. Surely whoever put Paul McCartney up to this selfless media stunt must have informed him that the killing of baby seals (the ones with white fur) was banned many moons ago. I then realize Paul McCartney, the man who brought us classics like ‘Yesterday,’ ‘Live and let die,’ and my favourite, the acid-inspired White Album, doesn’t have a clue. The same man who co-wrote the song ‘revolution’ to denounce those who wanted to exploit his celebrity status to promote socialism had been tricked into lending his name to a cause he knows very little about.

Just how detached Mr. McCartney was became clear in a debate on CNN. In an interview with Larry King, Danny Williams, a former Rhodes Scholar and the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, invites Paul McCartney to come to Newfoundland(or, “New Finland,” according to Larry King).

“But I’m already in Newfoundland!!” Mr. McCartney yells with moral indignation, his wife nodding with approval.

Apparently someone forgot to put the sign on the back of his guitar; he was in Prince Edward Island. That is, err, a different province. But I mean really, what’s the difference, right? Both are Islands lost in the Atlantic where people talk funny and eat cheap lobster that should be reserved for rich people. Surely he can be forgiven. I mean really, is there anyone amongst us who knows the real difference between Liverpool, London or Luton? Be honest.

Let us go back to the photo-op. Of course, a photo with a full grown seal would not go over so well. Full grown seals, if you’ve never seen one, are ugly. They are huge beasts whose upper and lower jaws are connected by permanent strings of saliva. Their cries resemble what you would imagine it must have sounded like when Odysseus blinded the Cyclops. You wouldn’t curl up to one for a picture, not only because if it rolled on top of you it’d crush your bones and you’d die instantly, but also because their breath smells like their diet: raw fish intestines. Imagine Brian Wilson at the peak of his obesity without having shaved or stepped out of bed for a number of years, and then you’ve got yourself a full-grown seal.

The camera then switches to the Canadian Embassy in Washington where a couple of dozen full-time executives, part-time protestors, take their lunch hour to cry shame on the Canadian government. The smell of triple-latte capo-macho-chinos and the buzzing of cell phones and blackberries set the stage for the SUV-driving John Kerry-supporting movement of popular resistance. Apparently the insurgency must have marched past the Zimbabwean Embassy, the North Korean Embassy, the Embassy of Uzbekistan, Belarus, etc, deciding not to stop, only to disembark in front of the house representing those drunk and harmless northerners who end every sentence with “eh!”.

“What do you think about people who hunt seals?” a brave reporter asks.

“They’re ignorant!”

“They’re backwards!”

“They have no compassion!”

Have you ever heard the saying that the things you don’t like about other people are really the things you don’t like about yourself?

Atlantic Canada is a humble place which, like the rest of the world, is trying to carve its own modernizing path through the vast tornado we call globalization. Flying over Newfoundland you get the impression from above that, if we ever decide to colonize mars, it’ll probably look something like this. The interior of the Island looks like a deserted crater, and it is only really the edges where you find small enclaves of the greatest people on earth, that for some reason only tend to live on Islands. These are towns where everyone still knows the names of all their neighbours. In these parts strangers wave at strangers, just in case they might meet them later. These are the kinds of people who don’t lock their doors, and if you asked them why, they’d say, “but what would happen if someone came by and I wasn’t home to receive them? How would they get in?”

And like many rural places around the world, these people deal everyday with a harsh economic reality. Tens of thousands of Newfoundlanders have left for the oil patches of Alberta. Others have gone on to study at University and then moved to Toronto to take up jobs as computer technicians and engineers. Unlike migrants from some places though, few Newfounlanders, and Atlantic Canadians in general, don’t dream of someday making it back to the places where people treat each other right.

And then there are those who stay. Many are fisherman. Newfoundland used to boom thanks to the generous access to the ocean. Then, after many years of over fishing by both domestic and foreign trolleys, fishing all but died out. Many people in these communities survive through the harsh winter on the checks they get from the government for being seasonal workers. They are in a catch-22. The country wants them to do the seasonal jobs because we enjoy the products they produce, especially seafood. Yet we call them lazy and stubborn for not finding work in the off season. The problem is that, even if they have a trade, few businesses hire people for only a few months at a time. In fact, most of the time seasonal workers aren’t working are down periods for every other industry.

One of the ways some people get by is through the seal hunt. Many of the seal hunters eat only what they kill with their bare hands, and in the summer they grow as much as they can to be subsistent. They’re lifestyles are far less of a threat to the environment than the protestors who call them ignorant and backwards. Contrary to the common belief that these people are bloodthirsty killers, they actually live in a weird communion with the animals they hunt. It is something that is hard to explain, and definitely isn’t evident when you observe the hunt in action. For example, one seal hunter interviewed acts as a tour guide, bringing the animal-rights tourists to see the seals he himself will kill once their fur changes colour. As the reporter correctly points out, people like the McCartney’s will spend more on a single trip to the ice-floats than most seal-hunters will make in a season. The same seal hunter starts to tear up when the reporter asks him about his job. As a tough skinned man who normally speaks his few words into his chest, you know he’s not the kind of guy who sheds a tear for the sake of the camera.

Back in Washington one of the protestors screams into the camera, as if reciting from a pamphlet:

“BUT THE MONEY THEY MAKE IS ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THEIR INCOME!”

This is true. However, when they make so little anyways, what is small change in the till at Starbucks is a lot to a seal hunter. It might allow him to send his kid to college. It might mean saving for retirement. Either way, it is an income he wouldn’t otherwise have. I might also add that I can say from experience that seal meat is definitely an acquired taste. If you ever tried it and then thought that it could be a part of your regular diet, you’d realize just how hard up some of these people are.

That same seal hunter is also doing himself and the fishing industry a favour. The seal population in the Atlantic is around 5,000,000. A population that large eats a huge amount of fish. If the seals aren’t hunted the species of fish we are trying to revive might fall into extinction. The seal quota, set by the federal government, is about 325,000, which isn’t very much when you consider the overall population. All of those vegetarians who like to chow done on Atlantic Salmon might wish to send a thank you card to the guys doing the ugly job of helping sustain the fishery.

The killing of animals, whether for food or for fashion, or sport, is never a pretty business. The benefit that large-scale meat production has is that it takes place behind closed doors instead of on an open ice-float. When you unwrap your processed McBurger, you don’t hear the screams of whatever animal you happen to be eating, nor do you see the blood splattered on the floor. You can safely avoid the smell of the severed hooves, still smouldering from the process that detached them.

Nor do we see the likes of McCartney snuggling up to alligators or the other not-so-cute animals that make up a part of our wardrobe on a daily basis. Why pay thousands to go to a cold ice-float in the middle of the Atlantic when you can instead take a nice trip to Geneva, light on fire the thousands upon thousands of Genevois Grandmothers who proudly wear fur, as if their dead husbands killed the animal with his bare hands, and then at least you can go skiing on the weekend.

As one park-ranger pointed, not everyone caught up in the rush of globalization wants to be a management consultant. Some people will continue to decide to live off the land and make money the only way they know how, and they deserve that right. There is no reason why we should all abandon the places we call home because free-market ideology says that we should sacrifice our lifestyles on the alter of cheap imports. If everyone decided not to stick out the winter, there would never be a Canada, or a Finland, Norway, Sweden, or some of the other countries who continually lay claim to the highest standard of living in the world.

It’s time we be honest with ourselves about the entire production of our excessive western lifestyles, from the exploited farmers who harvests our coffee beans, to the sweat-shop teenage girls who make our wardrobes, to the not-so-cute animals whose meat, parts, and fur also make their way into the clothes we wear and the food we eat. Being selectively indignant may make us feel better now, but its not going to help us on the magical mystery tour down the long and winding road towards environmentally sustainable and balanced lifestyles.

Yours truly,

MCA

A Unite the Left Movement?

2006-03-15T21:04:00.000+01:00

A Unite the Left Movement?

Sometime this weekend the federal Liberal executive will get together over Chinese food and hammer out the guidelines for the upcoming leadership contest. Expect next week and the week after to be full of announcements from people you’ve heard of and people you haven’t declaring their candidacy.

One of the early front runners is former Ontario Premier Bob Rae. There appears to be no question that Rae is getting ready to go; he’s even brought on board Jean Chrétien’s former right-hand man, Eddy Goldenberg, to help organize a party machine.

In a speech last week Rae mentioned something about a “unite the left” movement. Of course, few believe that a full merger between the Liberal Party and the NDP would ever take place. Although some, like the Globe’s favourite blogger Jason Cherniak, see the NDP as an unnecessary hurdle that blocks the Liberal party from achieving its full potential, the rest of us appreciate having a third option. It is not a sign of a healthy democracy to have to plug your nose when you vote.

The other thing to consider is that eliminating the NDP wouldn’t necessarily mean smooth sailing for the Liberal Party. Take recent events on the side of the ocean where I’m currently living. After the embarrassing defeat of his own legislation, Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair has come to count on support from the Tory opposition to get bills past, so great is the dissent in the Labour ranks. In fact, I remember during the last election a few Labour backbenchers campaigned on a promise to keep Tony Blair in line. And this is his own party! Is this the kind of Liberal party Dan Cooke wants?

One of the reasons that the NDP would refuse to merge with the Liberals is because few realistic party members believe that the NDP is going to form the government in the next twenty or thirty years, and they are fine with that. Although it does have support across the country, the NDP has been unable to make any breakthroughs in Quebec. Despite a good showing this time around, in which the party increased its seat total significantly, the NDP would be pressed to once again achieve the success it experienced under Ed Broadbent. Finally, so long as the first past the post system remains in tact the NDP is going to continue to fall victim to strategic voting.

This does not mean that NDP doesn’t play an important role in shaping Canadian politics. The fact that Canadians voted Tommy Douglas as the greatest Canadian without him ever having inhabited Sussex Drive goes to show the influence the NDP can have by applying pressure from the outside. Indeed, from time to time the Liberals need to be reminded what it means to be liberal, and so even if the NDP doesn’t always get the credit it deserves, it is often responsible for the Liberal party’s more progressive policies (if you don’t believe me, try to find a quote by Paul Martin or any Liberal for that matter talking about child care before the Liberal minority).

So after taking all of this into consideration, is there really any worth in discussing a ‘unite the left’ movement? To the chagrin of Liberals and NDPers alike, I am going to say, Yes, because the fact of the matter is that it could end up being beneficial to both parties.

As I mentioned, such an agreement would not consist of the NDP folding into the Liberals, or a ‘New Democratic Liberal Party’ merger, or anything of the sort. I am thinking more along the lines of a strategic alliance between the parties for the next election. In this scenario the Liberals could run a candidate in 2/3rds of the nations ridings and the NDP could run candidates in the other third. Although there would no doubt be bickering between the two parties as to who ran where, I am sure that strategists sitting in a smoky room and drinking brandy could figure out who had the best chance of winning in each riding.

For example, Liberals would obviously have a better chance of taking seats in Quebec, so they would probably run in the majority of the seats there. The NDP tends to be stronger in places like Saskatchewan and certain parts of Ontario. I am sure that fighting would break out over B.C., where both parties have faired well, and also Toronto, which has traditionally voted Liberal but has been willing to turn to the NDP as of late.

It would be a mistake to think that adding the Liberals and NDP votes together would guarantee support on the same level the parties enjoyed before the alliance. I imagine that some Liberals would prefer to vote for the Harpies rather than support a united option, and that some traditional NDP supporters would move over to the Green party as a matter of principle. Nevertheless, vote splitting would certainly come an end in many places, and the Conservatives would have a much harder time slipping through either with a minority or a majority.

The Liberal would benefit by silencing the criticisms that they aren’t being “Liberal” enough. They’d also gain a number of highly experienced cabinet material MPs, including Jack Layton, Alexa Mcdonagh, Pat Martin, Bill Blackie, and Yvon Godin, to name a few. No matter how hard they try, Liberals for some reason have been unable to articulate a proper environmental policy. I would bet that Jack Layton, rather than attempting to jockey himself into a position of higher influence, would be much more satisfied taking over the environment ministry and finally putting it in order. Without a doubt the idea probably provokes the NDP leader’s midlife nocturnal emissions.

Not only would the NDP gain through contributing to policy, they’d also probably elect a record number of MPs, thus giving themselves further credentials in the event that the love between the two parties was lost and they found themselves once again on the opposition benches. People would be much more likely to vote for the NDP if they felt that they could hold the balance of power. Furthermore, having a record to run on that extends beyond opposing things would also contribute to future electoral success.

It is hard to say whether or not the two parties could work out such an agreement before the next election. It may be the case that the parities’ constitutions require that they run candidates in all 308 ridings, which would obviously complicate things.

Nevertheless, if anyone can pull this off, it might just be Bob Rae. The fact that he was the former NDP premier of Ontario would go far in making many NDPers believe him genuine and serious about a strong left-of-centre alternative, even if many resent his having abandoned the party.
Jean Chrétien never had to worry about such a union because majorities came easy to him. Paul Martin was too arrogant to even conceive of such an idea, and we see where that attitude has got him now. A new bread of Liberal leaders could change the attitude of the Liberal party towards its NDP cousins. What might determine the question for the two parties is their mutual desire to send Steven Harper into early retirement. At this point in time it is too early to see which Steven Harper becomes Prime Minister, and whether or not the Canadian public will grant him another term or search for an excuse to throw him out.

A Conferate Atlantic Government

2006-03-11T11:36:00.000+01:00

After taking some time off I come to you today with two posts. This is a response to a post found here:

http://thecanadiansentinel.blogspot.com/2006/03/atlantic-canadian-amalgamation-one.html

in which the author argues that Canada would be better off if Atlantic Canada only had one central administration. I clearly disagree.

One way of making sure no-one offers a rebuttal for your argument is by stating, "the reasonable person would have a difficult time arguing the opposite." I consider myself a reasonable person, and I disagree.

First of all, let me say, with all due respect, that your argument does not point to any empirical evidence that supports a more centralized governing structure. I fail to see anything beyond "it doesn't make sense to have separate provincial administrations for such a relatively small geographical area." My question is, why doesn't it?

(1) A confederation between the Atlantic provinces would not necessarily bring an end to the red tape which businesses complain gets in their way. In fact, It is quite possible that a confederate government would impose just as many regulations that you call red-tape as any other provincial government. From a hypothetical standpoint, there is nothing inherent in a confederate government that would make it more efficient.

2.) We, in New Brunswick, are quite happy to have our own provincial government for many reasons, one being that we can guarantee official bilingualism in all of our jurisdictions. Within a confederate government of all Atlantic Canada I can't imagine being able to deliver the same assurances over language rights, and I don't imagine the politician from Cornerbrook would be too happy about speaking French to placate the fisherman from Tracadie. (for more information please see Alberta v. Quebec).

3.) A more centralized government run probably out of Halifax would be the equivalent of creating an Ottawa Jr in terms of waste. There is no lack of evidence to prove how inefficient the federal government can be at administering programs that are supposed to run from coast to coast to coast. This is because local administration brings local accountability. When our provincial governments cut back on health care, they have to deal with the fallout from people loosing hospital beds. Ottawa, however, rarely has to deal with the real consequences of its spending fluctuations. By moving all of our administrative power to a place like Halifax, those of us outside that region would loose our local accountability.

All of this said, I think the problem with the idea is that it is taking us in the wrong direction from where it is we actually should be going. The federal government should be lowering taxes so that provincial governments can raise them and start making headway with our health and education systems, which the provinces are ultimately responsible for delivering. 80% of our country's population lives in urban areas, and cities are coming under increasing pressures to supply necessary services yet they don't have the taxing capabilities to raise revenues. Paul Martin talked about a "new deal" for cities, but unless we get a true, renewable funding mechanism, power is going to continue to stay in Ottawa.

Now is not a time, at least in my opinion, to start talking about increased centralization. If anything we need to start thinking of new methods of devolution so that people's tax dollars are put to use more effectively, and our governing structures become more accountable.

Those are my two cents. And yes, reasonable people are free to disagree.

MCA

Will the Real Stephen Harper Please Stand Up?

2006-03-11T10:43:00.000+01:00

Now, before I go on to say what I have to say, let me clarify that I, for one, welcomed the recent change of government, even if I don't share the Conservative party’s views on such things as the environment, gay rights, crime, well, most everything. Nevertheless, the Liberals had grown old and stale in power and it was time to remind them that we lend them the keys to Sussex drive; it isn't their right to squat.

For his part, Stephen Harper wanted Canadians to believe that he and the Conservatives were ethical uber-politicians. Unlike the liberals, the Conservatives were born without the gene that makes one prone to corruption and arrogance. It's hard to believe that he is the same guy we saw desperately trying to convince Canadians that a vote for his government was a vote for a new way of doing politics.

I need not recount the hypocrisy of the Fortier debacle. Harper said he would never use the senate for partisan reasons, and that the senate would be elected. He did the opposite, although he will probably try to redeem himself by never again appointing anyone, hoping that we’ll forget, and allow for the election of senators.

The Emerson switch made many in the Conservative party a bit weary, as it seemed like such a "liberal" thing to do. What has happened since then, in my opinion, is the real kicker, the pipebomb, if you will, that has torn down the wall between perception and reality.

The ethics commissioner, Bernard Shapiro, decided to launch an investigation into Emerson and the Prime Minister. His reason: if David Emerson was offered an incentive to cross the floor, the prime minister may have breached the ethical constraints of his office.

The Prime Minister's response was dished out of the barrel of arrogance left over from when the liberals moved out in a rush. Stephen Harper said he was "loath" to cooperate with an individual whose credibility had been called into question. The ethics commissioner was a "liberal appointee" who, as an 'unelected' official had no right to interfere with the Prime Minister's sovereign duty to appoint cabinet ministers.

First of all, let me say two things in the Prime Minister's defence. Yes, the ethic commissioner was censured by parliament because he spoke to a reporter about an ongoing investigation without notifying the target of that investigation, MP Deepak Obhrai. The Prime Minister would have been right to speak out about the credibility of the issue, had he done so at the time instead of waiting until he won an election to announce that he was above parliament. Secondly, the Prime Minister ultimately holds responsibility to appoint whomever he wants to cabinet, and yes, he can appoint people from other parties, so long as they are sitting members of parliament or the senate. From what I can gather from the constitutional experts who have spoken out on the issue, despite the fact that Emerson's defection was cynical and all the rest, it probably wasn't illegal.

Discredited the ethics commissioner seems a poorly thought out plan if the Conservatives really want us to believe that they are our ethical superiors. Harper may easily forget, but in the pre-Shapiro age, the ethics commissioner reported only to the PM. Shapiro is the first to be responsible only to parliament, and as such all members of parliament, including the prime minister, fall under his jurisdiction. Stephen Harper fought his this post, and now he has to accept it. He might well get used to lots of ‘unelected’ officials investigation his office, like the auditor-general, who are hired by the Canadian people to protect us from the politicians who abuse their office.

The nastiness of this episode was revealed this morning in the Globe and Mail, where conservative Mp Deepak Obhrai accused the Ethics Comissioner of being responsible for his brother's suicide after he went under investigation for allegedly offering a bribe to fast-track some visa applications. He stated that the ethics commissioner was a "Gestapo chief," and has since refused to retract his remarks.

Since arriving in power Stephen Harper has been very careful to keep a tight muzzle on his cabinet ministers and caucus. With comments like these, it is no wonder he'd want to. I mentioned earlier in a post that the Conservative party was bursting at the seems with people waiting to say something distasteful or politically incorrect. The floodgate appears to be ajar, and whether or not the PM opens it more or closes it tight will probably determine whether or not Canadians continue to hold Harper in any sort of esteem. We'll have to wait and see.

Dominic Leblanc for Liberal Leader?

2006-02-27T23:51:00.000+01:00

This will be a short post, as many personal things have kept me away from the BlogWorld for a few days now.

First of all, I want to say that one of the things that drives me nuts is when I get the feeling the a journalist is legitimizing his or her personal opinion in an article by stating that "others are saying..." Case in point: When Andy Savoie lost in the most recent federal election, one reporter noted the next day, "Some are already talking about Andy as a potential provincial Liberal leader." He'd hardly even had a chance to clean up his office and 'people' are already talking about his future? Hardly 8 hours had passed! Give me a break!

I thought this was the case again when I read an article which suggested that Dominic Leblanc might be considering a run for the Liberal leadership. Turns out though that his name is being mentioned by a few, although he's far from front-runner status. Indeed, on the outside Dominic Leblanc looks like a great potential leader. He's young, bilingual, not from Quebec, has experience in Ottawa and has important contacts inside the Liberal party. However, the Harvard-trained Lawyer has yet to hold a cabinet post, and we don't really know if he has the managerial and leadership skills to lead a party.

I, for one, am not willing to count him out at this point. He's a guy that was popular both with Chretien and with Martin, and so he wont revive those old tensions if he wins. We have to remember that this is the first time probably since 1968 that the Liberal Party has had a REAL leadership race without the result being pre-determined months in advance. The guy who won it that time was a little-known academic from Montreal called Pierre Elliot Trudeau, who had only served a short stint as justice minister. Could Leblanc be the next Trudeau? It is hard to say, but joining the Liberal leadership race might not be a bad career move, even if he is a long shot. If he does better than expected he'll be a sure pick for cabinet next time the Liberals take power. He'll also gain a national profile, and the next time a leadership race comes up, he'll be amongst the first MPs journalists and politicians turn to as an immediate front runner.

Dominic Leblanc does have a young family, and this could hold him back. Either way, at only 38 years young, the fact that he's even mentioned now means that he could have strong potential in the future.

Who drove the tank into the legislature?

2006-02-22T12:11:00.000+01:00

I wonder if there is an official term to describe the scenario when someone who is unauthorized jumps into a tank and drives it over cars, playgrounds, and the like, because that is exactly what happened in New Brunswick over the weekend. The tank in question is registered to the Miramichi, and it goes by the name if Michael "Tanker" Malley.

See, when Bernard Lord first came to power, Tanker was elected to represent Miramichi-Bay du Vin. At first, Tanker was more of a novelty to the Lord crew than a serious MLA with leadership potential. Tanker added a home-town face to their campaign and made them look like a party of the people, but no one seriously considered the former bus driver to be cabinet material. Tanker was re-elected when Lord won his most recent scarce majority, and it wasn't long before rumours started spreading of his possible defection. The Lord's workers didn't make it any easier for him. Miramichi was one of a number of communities that saw vital health services cut by the Lord government, a move that was obviously extremely unpopular in those areas. This put Tanker in a difficult situation. Should he continue to support the government, or should he side with his community? Before giving him the chance to decide, Lord made the smart move of making Tanker chief whip, which meant that, instead of spending time considering his own defection, he'd have to concentrate on making sure everyone in the party was around for the crucial votes.

Since Tanker’s defection, two narratives have sprung up out of the blue, and it's hard to say which has a monopoly on the truth. Bernard Lord claims that Malley, upset at having been left out of cabinet, presented him with a list of five demands in order for him to stay on board. According to Lord, one of these demands was that Malley's friend and former Conservative leadership contender, Cleveland Allaby, be made a judge. Lord says he told Malley he wouldn't be blackmailed by anyone, even if it came at the expense of his slim majority.

Malley and Allaby both fervently deny any plot to have Allaby made a judge. They admit to discussing politics together, but Allaby claims Malley acted on his own. The thing that complicates this all is that Allaby happens to be the cousin of a well-known Liberal organizer, Larry Jewett, who has been accused of trying to persuade two different Conservative backbenchers to cross the floor or sit as independents. The Lord government would like us to believe that Jewett was working in cahoots with Allaby to bring down the government.

Right now, I'm not sure who to believe. The Premier could have decided to make up these allegations in order to publicly slander and humiliate both Malley and Allaby, given that the connection between Jewett and Allaby was made before hand. The Premier, instead of looking like a man unsympathetic to the constituents of Miramichi, appears to be man of principle, whereas Allaby and Malley are made to look shady, opportunistic, and self-serving. Politics is a dirty game, and I would be surprised in the Conservatives, including Lord, would stoup to this level.

On the other hand, it is possible that Malley took his absence from cabinet as a personal insult and decided to go down with a fight. If he did, however, he seems to have been unprepared for the fallout, and maybe he incorrectly assumed that the Premier would keep his mouth shut about the demands. Either way, Tanker Malley doesn't look too good right now in the eyes of New Brunswickers. Indeed, if he does chose to bring down the government, chances are he'll be ending his own political career as well.

Some Conservatives, such as Brenda Fowlie, are trying to pin this on the Liberals, but so far they've managed to stay out of the mess. The only connection to the Liberal party is through Larry Jewett, who does not function in any way as a spokesperson or representative of the Liberal party.

Besides, it'd be hard for the Conservatives to make the Liberals look sleazy without reminding us all of the Pot's dilemma vis-à-vis the kettle. The Conservatives have tried everything imaginable to get their enemies out of the legislature, including appointing two to government jobs (Richard, Weir), and tempting a third (T.J. Burke), who was then, rumour has it, offered to succeed Bernard Lord as party leader if he crossed the floor.

The Liberals have been waiting patiently for Graham's numbers to rise in the polls, and it appears that, were an election held today, they'd probably win. At the same time, few have strong confidence in Graham's leadership, and may not want to rush into an election for fear that Bernard Lord's machine could kick into high gear and surprise everyone with a third majority. This might not be far from the wishes of many liberals, as that would give them an opportunity to call for their leader's head, and allow someone else to take over and fight against an embattled and soon to be finished Premier.

Whoever said small town politics is boring has never spent time in New Brunswick, that's for sure.

Liberal Leadership: Where is Glen Murray?

2006-02-15T13:14:00.000+01:00

Probably the smartest move Paul Martin made in his political career was to resign the night he lost the election. I don't say this out of spite, but because the speculation about the next liberal leader has garnered as much attention as the Conservatives' transition from opposition to government. So who are the players and what are there chances?

After McKenna, Manley, and Tobin bowed out of the race, who the next Liberal leader is anyone's guess. Considering that out of those actively organizing for the race, two are former conservatives, one a former NDP, and one who doesn't have a history in any party, you'd be correct to wonder if there are any Liberals out there who actually want the job!

There are some candidates who are already actively organizing. These are the Also rans:

Belinda Stronarch and Scott Brison are seeking support, but neither speaks French well enough to debate in that language. (Harper, incidentally, improved his French rather quickly and now does alright. It just goes to show what can happen with dedication). As well, being former conservatives wouldn’t help them any. Brison did well in his position as Minister of Public Works, whereas Belinda has never appeared to have the political instincts necessary to take on such an important job as leader of the Liberal party.

Ken Dyrden is rumoured to be contemplating a run, but his French is poor as well. The advantage of having Dryden as leader is that name recognition goes a long way, and he might be the only unilingual anglophone in Canada who could convince Quebecers to vote Liberal in a few years time. The problem is that Ken Dryden is a respected public figure who enjoys a certain degree of moral authority; even Conservatives were cautious not to attack him too much as Canadians hold their former star goaltender close to their hearts. If he were to become leader of the Liberal party, he would become fair game, and any corruption scandal even remotely linked to a Dryden administration would have an irreversible effect on his public image. Ken would have to ask whether or not this would be worth it.

Carolyn Bennett, a Toronto MP, may try to throw her name in the hat, as will Maurizio Bevilacqua, a Martin backer from the beginning who was betrayed when the man left him out of cabinet.

The Contenders

Former cabinet minister Joe Volpe is said to be wanting to take a stab, and his French is quite good. He doesn't have a very high profile right now, having served in two ministries during Martin's brief tenure, but that could change in the course of a leadership race. Volpe is a guy who will probably appeal to a lot of 'new' Canadians, and I suspect he'll at least be considered.

Michael Ignatieff - Although he looked like a long shot a few months ago when rumours started spreading of his return to Canada, Ignatieff is now looking like more and more like a potential leadership contender. Although well-known to political science students and enthusiasts, his name wont ring a bell with the average Canadian. His stance on the Iraq war will be unpopular with Liberals, as will the fact that he spent the better part of the last 30 years living in the U.K. and the U.S.A. I don't think that living abroad should be an impediment for anyone entering public office. However, a 27 year absence only ended in order to run for office raises a few suspicions about the man's commitment to Canada. His thoughts on foreign policy are well known, yet where he stands on domestic issues is cloudy. Whether or not he could survive a leadership race could determine whether or not enough withstand a Conservative offensive which I imagine would consist of more or less the same material. One way or another, electing M. Ignatieff as Liberal leader would be a big risk, as no-one knows how he would be received by the Canadian electorate.

Another big risk is Bob Rae, former NDP premier of Ontario. It's hard to say whether or not Ontario has forgiven him for his lacklustre 4 years at the helm of Canada's most populated province. Either way, he'd have a relatively clean slate with the rest of Canada, which doesn't really remember Bob Rae or what he did/did not do whilst in power in Ontario. I have a feeling that Mr. Rae wouldn't do as bad as some think in Ontario, considering Tony Clement and Jim Flaherty were recently elected in that province, and the Mike Harris years are far more fresh in people's memories than the Rae years.
Bob Rae also has the added advantage of having more political experience than anyone else considering a run, and he also knows federal and provincial governments inside and out. He's also rumoured to be an Ignatieff fan, so I imagine that if he doesn't finding himself running against the former Harvard academic, he may be backing his buddy. Either way, I think it is safe to say that Bob Rae is on the verge of making a political comeback, and will be one of the new faces that will help re-design the Liberal party of Canada.

Lastly, the guy who I think probably should throw his name in the hat is former Winnipeg Mayor Glen Murray. Born and raised in Montreal, Murray served as mayor of Winnipeg from 1998-2004, when he resigned to run for Paul Martin's Liberals. Murray lost that race for a number of reasons, probably the biggest being that he assumed he could easily win, and the voters would not allow themselves to be taken for granted. Besides that, Murray ran in a suburban seat, even though his popularity was strongest amongst the urban core. Nevertheless, his tenure in Winnipeg continues to be regarded as a success by most people. At a time when Canadian cities are under increasing pressure to provide essential services without many options for raising revenues, a new deal is needed, and Glen Murray could be the person to deliver. Of course, a new deal was part of Paul Martin's vision as well, but his vision was so broad and encompassing that people could not identify the man with the cause.

Fluently bilingual and with one foot in Quebec and one in the West, Glen Murray could be the leader the Liberal's need to stop the Conservative's from breaking into their traditional strongholds, whilst making new ground west of Ontario. One could question whether or not being openly gay would decrease his chances of bringing home a Liberal majority, but my feeling is that anyone who wouldn't vote for a candidate because he was gay probably stopped voting Liberal a long time ago. In other words, it's a demographic they wouldn't reach anyways. Others might be enticed by the idea of electing a gay Prime Minister, as it would send a message to the world about Canada's progressive nature. At the same time, however we'd have to recognize before bragging that we still haven't managed to elect a female Prime Minister, and so countries such as Liberia and Chile appear to be a bit ahead of us in that department.

I've tried to find Glen Murray's email address to inquire as to whether or not he's considering a run, but so far have been unsuccessful. If anyone has more luck than me, please do send it along.

Take care,

MCA

The Ballad (Battle?) of Bernie and Shawn

2006-02-11T20:33:00.000+01:00

The Ballad (Battle?) of Bernie and Shawn

Sometimes I imagine that New Brunswick politics are like a cartoon episode I must have seen a million times before. Imagine Bernard Lord (Bernie, for our purposes) is the premier. When he came to power, people generally liked him because he was seen as a man who kept his promises. He had 20 issues to resolve in 100 days, and he more or less made it. After those 100 days though, things haven’t been going so well for him.

Now, imagine the premier has a bratty little brother named Shawn. At first, Shawn doesn’t figure much into Bernie’s life, but then when Shawn sees how much attention Bernie gets as Premier, Shawn decides to become the leader of his own political party. Bernie initially dismisses Shawn as too much of a lightweight to do well in HIS political arena, but then Shawn surprised everyone by coming closer than anyone expected and almost winning an election against Bernie. Now, when Shawn speaks, people tend to take him serious, and when he does you can almost see Bernie’s face getting redder and steam coming out of his ears. You know on the inside Bernie wants to yell, “HE STILL WETS THE BED FOR CRIPES SAKE! HE CAN’T BE PREMIER!,” yet his pleas continually fall on deaf ears. Unfortunately, we all know how this is going to end. One of these days Bernie is going to be so down and out by Shawn’s ascension that he’s going to have a few drinks, jump in his car, and drive his party straight into an election. We can only hope that someone is around to pick up the pieces.

This, in a nutshell, is New Brunswick politics. During the last election, despite not overwhelming the province with his keen political skills, Shawn Graham managed to start pulling on the right threat of public opinion, and before you knew what happened Bernard Lord’s sweater of a majority was reduced to a skin-tight T-shirt. Lord had obvious reasons to be upset; he clearly had more experience and a more articulate vision for the future, how could voters turn there back on him over such a silly issue as car insurance? Well, it helps to remember that Bernard Lord owed his initial majority to the public’s discontent over the idea of a toll highway, a plan Bernie ending up scrapping in the end at the expense of the New Brunswick taxpayer.

Bernard Lord’s problem, as I see it now, is that he is the one-man show of the Conservative party, and the problem with being a one-man show is that, once people get tired of you, there is no-one who can divert attention and allow you to sit out a few rounds. Lord has few strong people behind him, and if they are in fact there, he’s not trusting enough to give them responsibilities and let them stand in the limelight. The guy who did his dirty work, Elvy Robichaud, has said ‘Enough Already!’ and thrown in he towel. This leaves the premier without, amongst other things, an obvious successor, which he will no doubt need after the 2007 election, unless of course someone gives him 40 acres so he can turn that rig around, as the song says.

Shawn Graham does not have this problem. His is another problem: you’d be hard to find a person in the province who really feels inspired by Shawn Graham’s leadership. In fact, if you look closely you’ll notice that many Liberal MLAs have teeth marks in their hands from all the times they have to bite their fists whenever they catch themselves saying “the next Premier of New Brunswick, Shawn Graham.” In what I think is an intentional move, Shawn Graham delegates a lot and so, rather than seeing his face on the front page every night, New Brunswickers see an assortment of potential leaders, including T.J. Burke, Mike Murphy, and Kelly Lamrock. Once he gets to office, he also has the benefit of having a few experienced cabinet ministers like my MLA Stu Jameson and fellow Saint-Johner Roly McIntyre. It is hard to say whether or not this strategy, which appears to work well on the opposition bench, can be successfully applied to the government’s benches.

Shawn Graham is not without other faults. When he was elected Liberal leader, I was willing to overlook his regular speaking gaffs and screechy voice because I was hopeful that, as a young leader from a new generation, he might be able to fundamentally change the Liberal party. Maybe he’d make the environment an actual priority rather than a necessary speaking point, like the great-great-aunt twice removed Liberals always feel the need to send a Christmas card to every year, but they never get around to actually visiting.

It didn’t take long to feel disappointed. Shawn’s solution to our energy shortage was to build a NEW Nuclear reactor (because the one we have has worked so well, insert sarcasm), and as it happens, he knows a guy who can hook us up, former NB Liberal Leader Ray Frenette, who just happens to be in the business of selling Nuclear reactors! How lucky are we?!? I Spanish I would say, ‘Qué cosa más Liberal!,” which roughly translates as “what an authentically Liberal thing to do!,” only it doesn’t have the same ring in English.

I guess this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, considering Shawn owes his current job to his Liberal connections, and without a Senate to appointment people to, Shawn has to find other creative ways to pay back favours. You see, the reason Shawn is the current Premier in waiting is because his father, a long time Liberal MP, had enough connections to seal up support for his boy when the job became open. Not only that, most Liberals over-estimated Bernard Lord’s strength and figured that they’d let Shawn be the guy to loose the next two elections, and then a real leader would step up when the party was on the verge of power. Bernard Richard, the intern leader, did an excellent job taking Lord to task, and had he stayed on as Liberal leader for the next election, Bernard Lord would have been the first Premier in a long time not to win a second term. Richard new this and so, when he was offered the high-paying job of Ombudsman, he took the chance to put his ‘what ifs’ to rest.

And so this is the situation we in N.B. find ourselves in today. The upcoming election is Bernard Lord’s to loose and Shawn Graham’s to win by default. Whether or not Graham has a successful term or terms as Premier depends solely on how quickly it takes the Conservatives to rebuild themselves and expose Graham’s weakness. When he arrives at the Premier’s chair, he’ll have to be sure to keep one eye constantly looking over his shoulder, as those guys he depends on to help lead the team, well, let’s just say, they’re all licking their slips at the smell of blood, and if the time is right it wont matter to them if it’s Bernie’s blood or Shawn’s.

Hasta Soon everybody,

MCA

The Harper Government - Sink or Swim?

2006-02-10T06:33:00.000+01:00

Well, the Harper government, or the Harpies, as I like to call them, have assembled the ship and left headed towards the vast and open sea, and now the question is whether they will sink or swim. It is probably pointless to make predictions at such an early stage, as literally anything could happen. Yet it is fun, so here I’m going to give it a go.

Throughout the campaign, all of the pundits who jumped on the conservative ship (everyone who owns a boat knows it’s a good idea to name your ship after a woman. The conservatives choose to name theirs after their Grandmother, which is why it’s called “The Preston”) talked endlessly about how cautious Steven Harper was. Indeed, the election was his to loose, and so he and his candidates had to take extra care to make sure they didn't say or do anything that would prove true the Liberal's scary add tactics. Nevertheless, on his first day of work Harper took some big calculated risks, and it is still too early to tell if they'll have a lasting impact. The Emerson appointment, along with destroying the man's integrity, definitely shook the conservative base, and from this point forward they'll be weary of anything that makes them look like hypocrites. But, like I said, these things could blow over.

For their part the Liberals are going to be out in the woods for a long time, so it'll probably be to their advantage to allow this minority parliament to run for two or three years. A lot depends on who takes over as leader. If someone from the current caucus takes over, has legs, and can build up some momentum, they may risk voting against the government if they feel they can pull off a minority/majority. However, if the new leader is someone from outside, especially someone without much parliamentary experience, we may see this parliament last longer than any other in our country’s history. The new leader would not only have to introduce him/herself to the public, but also possibly run in a bi-election in order to get into the house. Regardless of either of these two outcomes, the Liberals will more than likely want to have a policy convention and maybe go on one of those makeover shows. Although health care and child care will definitely be their bread and butter issues, they wont want to look like Chrétien/Martin re-runs.

So where does one place his bet? My money is on the idea that once the Conservatives feel they have potential for a majority, they'll pull the plug on themselves. They may even try to take advantage of the Liberal's momentary headless state, or go at them when they have a new and untested leader. I imagine that, rather than attempt this over a contentious issue, it'll probably be a battle over a tax cut, which would make the Conservatives look like a party sympathetic to taxpayers and make the Liberals look like money hungry bloodsuckers eager to setup another registry programme to siphon off billions of dollars (who knows, maybe a blender registry? If a blender fell into the wrong hands, who knows what could happen). The Conservatives may or may not succeed in pulling off a majority. The biggest risk would be that the nameless Liberal leader performs better than expected, a la Carol James in British Columbia, and the Liberals tighten the Conservative's already skin-tight acid washed minority.

Who knows, there is a lot that can happen, and the conservatives have a party full of people just dying to say something stupid. Who will be the first? I hear Vegas has their money on Stockwell Day, who is always a safe bet. At the same time, though, the Conservatives have a lot of cabinet ministers with zero experience in government at the federal level. Any one of them could be a ticking time bomb. Let us not forget the religious conservative backbenchers, closest reformers, and of course, Myron Thompson.

Finally, someone asked me why I refer to Tony Clement as Fishface, and I think that deserves an explanation. Tony Clement raises my blood pressure every time I see him because of something he said the day he announced his intention to run for the leadership of the new conservative party. He said that, as an immigrant himself, he knew the challenges faced by new Canadians. HIS PARENTS CAME FROM ENGLAND! What, did his parents have difficult finding work because of their superior command of the English language? Was his father consistently mistaken for someone's butler? Does his really have the cajones to say on national TV that as the son of English migrants he has experienced the same challenges as an uneducated Sudanese refugee? Give me a break! The only time I've ever shaken my first harder at the T.V. was when Belinda Stronach said, with a straight face, that she faced challenges as a single mother. What challenge does a millionaire single mother face when you have a football team hired to take care of your children? Choosing whether to send them to school in the Hummer or the Corvette is not a REAL challenge!

That’s it for today folks. I shall soon post on the Ballad of Bernie and Shawn, and I’m working on a longer piece about bilingualism in New Brunswick. Hasta Soon everyone.

MCA

Recall David Emerson/Cabinet update

2006-02-09T18:01:00.000+01:00

Hi Everyone,

There has been a petition started online to recall David Emerson, the Vancouver-Kingsway MP who was elected as a Liberal and then switched to the Conservatives in order to take up a cabinet position. Check it out:

http://www.petitiononline.com/RDE/

Don't be hestitant to send his constituency office a note as well:

emersd@parl.gc.ca

Thanks to those who pointed out the oversights in my article about the new Harper cabinet. Vic Toews, the new justice minister, is a convicted criminal! Gordon O'Connor, the new defense minister, once lobbied for Airbus, meaning that, under Stephen Harper's new Accountability act, O'Connor's appointment would be technically illegal. Meanwhile, the Fortier appointment seems to have more legs in the English media than it does in the French press, as Quebecers seems to be generally happy with the appointment.

Senate reform

2006-02-08T20:08:00.000+01:00

Senate Reform – The Nunavut example

Before I begin I want to say a big thank you to Canada's foremost political scientist Donald Savoie, who was kind enough to invite me to Dinner at All Souls College here in Oxford last evening for some good food and great conversation about both national and provincial politics. For those of you not in Oxford, All Souls is sort of the Vahalla for academics. The college doesn't accept students and the fellows, who are admitted on the understanding that they are at the top of their field, are given free range to spend all of their time researching. Most students don't get the chance to explore the insides of this mysterious place, and so it was a great honour to be Doctor Savoie's guest. When he was a student here at Oxford, Dr. Savoie received a similiar invitation by a fellow named Charles Taylor, and so he felt a duty to reciprocate that kindness. Now it would be wrong to reveal the details of our discussion, but I will hint that I may or may not have received my first high-profile backing in my bid to become premier of New Brunswick. We'll see how that works out.

One of the things I’m hoping Stephen Harper will move forward on during his mandate is the reformation of the Senate. Harper has talked about Senate reform in the past, and it is often cited as one of the causes of Western alienation. Like Mulroney before him, Harper correctly points to the many Liberal patronage appointments to the Senate as one of the causes for Canadians’ decreasing respect for public institutions. And like Mulroney before him, Harper wasted know time in using the senate for his own political purposes by appointing Michel Fortier in order to allow him to sit in cabinet.

If it doesn’t do too much damage, Harper’s choice may have been a smart one. Fortier probably stood no chance of winning a seat in Montreal before the election. As a high-profile and visible cabinet minister, he could win a seat next time around, which might end the Liberal’s stronghold on the island. All of this remains to be seen.

What I want to talk about today is a proposal to reform the Senate. First of all, let me say that, as much as Canadians probably want to see an elected senate, I’m not sure they want a dysfunctional bicameral government, with one level constantly interfering and watering down with the other’s legislation. It seems to me that Canadians like to elect a government with a clear mandate and expect that mandate to be implemented. So the question now becomes, how do we reform the Senate without ending up in that scenario?

For an answer, I think we should look to Nunavut. The structure of the provincial government in Nunavut is a hybrid system based on Indigenous and non-indigenous practices. Members of the legislative assembly are elected as independents; no-one runs under a party banner. Once elected, the members vote in secret for a cabinet. The individual with the most votes becomes the premier (this part of the system is currently being debated. Many people in Nunavut would like to have more control over deciding who becomes premier). Those with the most votes form the cabinet and the governing party. Those with the fewest are the opposition. Rather than sitting across from each other, the government and opposition sit in a circle, which is supposed to represent the consensus-based style of government of the Indigenous people, rather than the confrontational approach of the Westminster parliamentary system. Because the candidates do not know whether or not they will form part of the government or the opposition, they are forced to work together in order to address Nunavut’s great social problems in a non-partisan fashion.

This system, however, is not without its problems and detractors. For starters, voters do not give any government an ideological mandate, and it’s very often difficult to know how one’s vote is going to change the direction of the government. I suppose that the system could be manipulated by well-organized backroom alliances where promises are made in order to ensure consistent voting patterns amongst certain members. I am sure that many of you out there can think of different ways in which this system could be abused. We should also remember that the Nunavut government’s brilliant democratic design wont on its own solve that province’s deep and complicated social ills.

Nevertheless, Canadians need to invent governing institutions which reflect our history and our diversity. We are no longer a British colony, and we need to develop a stronger sense of collective identity based first and foremost on recognition and respect for the cultures of our first nation’s peoples. Canada has much work to do in terms of cultural reconciliation, and unfortunately it seems to be moving quite slowly. Having institutions which remind us of our unique makeup is one step in the right direction.

Senators, elected at the same time as parliament, could vote amongst themselves for a government and an opposition. Basically, the Senate would continue to function as it does now, only without Senators sitting in on caucus meetings, unless of course a Senator was occupying a position in cabinet. The senate seats could be distributed more evenly in order to better provide regional representation, which is one of the major complaints against the current system.

If Canadians aren’t convinced by this idea, than maybe we should look for methods that would involve people in the political process who wouldn’t normally want to step into the circus of electoral politics. Let’s face it: if we switched to an elected senate today, the majority of people who would allow their names to stand would be former provincial and federal politicians hoping for an additional pension beyond the age of 75. One way we could go about this would be to adopt a system similar to what the Campbell government used in B.C. in order to draw a committee to look at electoral reform. Citizens would put forward their name to the government and a committee would be drawn randomly through a lottery. Those people would then draw up a list of outstanding citizens from civil society, academia, the volunteer sector, business, etc, who would then be put forward to the electorate as candidates.

With senate reform we have a wonderful opportunity to add democratic credibility to our government and introduce to the world a unique governing system which reflects our particular cultural values. Let’s not be satisfied with simply throwing another layer of partisanship on top of a system that is already in desperate need of serious democratic reform.

The New Conservative Cabinet

2006-02-06T22:17:00.000+01:00

Today Stephen Harper announced his cabinet, and he seems to have decided to play it safe. Before I enter into my critique, allow me to place these comments within a context.

First of all, let me say I welcome the new minority government. Like many Atlantic Canadians, I was/am suspicious of Stephen Harper. Part of it comes from my bias against conservative economists, who tend to see the world through a one dimensional and limited perspective. Also, I'm not totally convinced that Stephen Harper has changed his ways, from being a radical conservative who once promoted putting a "firewall" around Alberta, so long as people like Tom Flanagan continue to act as his principal advisors. Tom Flanagan is a U.S. born political scientist based in Alberta who would like to re-start the Colonial mission of complete assimilation/integration of our first nation's peoples.

Nevertheless, with only a minority government Harper will have an easier time passing legislation that is progressive and a harder time dismantling the country, as many of us fear he would really like to do. The Liberals are old, tired, and in desperate need of some new leadership and new ideas. I'll comment later about the Liberal leadership.

In his choice of cabinet ministers, Harper has chosen a number of people who have experience at the provincial level. I found it funny that he chose Tony Clement (who I shall from here on in refer to as Fishface) for the important position of Health Minister, when Harper himself reminded Fishface in the leadership race that "federal politics is a different ballgame." Fishface's partner from the Mike Harris government in Ontario, Jim Flaherty, was one of the principal architects of that province's social demise. Again, here is to hoping that a good progressive opposition keeps his budgets in the mainstreams. Jim Prentice was a good choice for native affairs; with him in charge of that portfolio, indigenous peoples can rest assured that Harper wont unleash the Flanagan, and instead, a progressive conservative with a deep knowledge of indigenous affairs will be taking over from where Andy Scott left off.

I was a little disappointed that Peter McKay was chosen from Foreign Affairs. This is a post where one likes to see someone who has published on issues related to foreign affairs and has at least some sort of speciality in the area. Canada almost lived up to its name as an effective middle-power when Lloyd Axeworthy ran the show. Unfortunately, since then the position has been held by some less than imaginative people (with the exception of B. Graham, who was at least competent). I'm afraid that with McKay in charge Canada will continue to be a country that talks a lot and accomplishes little on the international scene.

Moving on, as much as I like Loyola Hearn, I'm not sure it was wise to place him in Fisheries and Oceans. Jeffery Simpson of the Globe and Mail once pointed out that ministries should not be given to ministers who have a strong local attachment to the issue. For example, a minister of Fisheries and Oceans from Newfoundland will inevitably have local pressures to lean one way or another on an issue in order to get re-elected. Although he may have a very in-depth and personal knowledge of the portfolio, I fear he wont be able to make the tough decisions when push comes to shove (Then again, we all remember when John Crosby had to make the tough announcement that fishing in Newfoundland was all but over).

To be honest, I wasn't surprised that D. Emerson crossed the floor. It was always remarked that he was never much of a partisan, yet one would have thought that, only a few weeks after being elected as a Liberal, he might give it a little while before turning his back on his constituents. J. Layton has proposed that floor crossers be forced to face a bi-election in their ridings. I don't think this is a bad idea at all, and it only pales in comparison to what some democracies require of Floor crossers (For example, in South Africa, one has to cross the floor with a percentage of your party. Not an easy thing to do).

The appointment of Michael Fortier was a bit of a surprise, in that it demonstrated how quickly Harper could make himself look like a back-peddling Liberal, trying to explain why he made an appointment to the Senate for political purposes.

Finally, the last question we have to ask ourselves is, if Stockwell Day is the minister for Public Safety, who will keep the public safe from Stockwell Day? I understand that for reasons relating to the internal politics of the Conservative Party, Harper had to give Stockwell SOMETHING. But could it have been at least Veterans' Affairs, or Agriculture, some position out of the way so that Canada can forget about that side of the conservative party? I guess it could have been worse!

Since all of these ministers, with the exception of Emerson, have yet to prove themselves in government at the federal level, it remains to be seen how each performs. For one thing, it will definitely throw a twist into the future leadership of the Conservative Party, should Harper falter and the need to find a new leader surface. If guys like Prentice and McKay fair poorly, they'll be a lot less likely to take over when Harper finishes.

The last thing I want to say is to point out the hypocrisy of saying that this new cabinet is "smaller, and more focused," as Harper likes to repeat. It is impossible for a cabinet to be both smaller and more focused. By being smaller, ministers are responsible for more than one portfolio, which means they have to make themselves experts in more than more thing. If anything, this will mean for a very unfocused cabinet. Conservative governments often try to chop themselves down in size to represent their fiscal responsibility, yet it could end up backfiring if it means having unprepared and uninformed ministers having too much on their plate and not enough appetite.

For my first post, this seems like enough. Hope someone out their in cyberland finds something here of interest. I'm always interested in hearing from people of all political stripes, so do not hesitate to write.

Hasta Soon everybody,

MCA